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Fiscal Sustainability in the Presence of Systemic Banks: the Case of EU Countries

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  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

    (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Guillaume Roussellet

    ()
    (ENSAE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - ENSAE ParisTech)

Abstract

We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit inssurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies of microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one relies on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis, based on historical data. The former approach tends to maximize the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one tends to minimize it. Hence we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00962455.

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Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00962455

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-pse.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00962455
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Keywords: Fiscal sustainability ; Systemic banking risk ; off -balance sheet liabilities;

References

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  1. Acharya, Viral V & Drechsler, Itamar & Schnabl, Philipp, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
  3. Caprio, Gerard & D’Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2014. "Macro-financial determinants of the great financial crisis: Implications for financial regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 114-129.
  4. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  6. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
  7. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. Mikhail Stolbov, 2014. "How Are Interbank and Sovereign Debt Markets Linked? Evidence from 14 OECD Countries, the Euro Area and Russia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 331-348, June.

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