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On the macroeconomic determinants of long-term volatilities and correlations in U.S. stock and crude oil markets

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  • Conrad, Christian
  • Loch, Karin
  • Rittler, Daniel

Abstract

Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables that contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors of changes in the oil–stock correlation. For the period 1993–2011 there is a strong evidence for counter cyclical behavior of the long-term correlation. For prolonged periods with strong growth above trend our model predicts a negative long-term correlation, while before and during recessions the sign changes and remains positive throughout the economic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin & Rittler, Daniel, 2014. "On the macroeconomic determinants of long-term volatilities and correlations in U.S. stock and crude oil markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:26-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2014.03.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil–stock relationship; Long-term volatility; Long-term correlation; GARCH-MIDAS; DCC-MIDAS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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