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Bayesian inference for periodic regime-switching models

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  • Eric Ghysels

    (Department of Economics, Pennsylvania State University, 608 Kern Graduate Building, University Park, PA 16802-3306, USA and Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organizations (CIRANO), Montréal, Québec H3A 2A5, Canada)

  • Robert E. McCulloch

    (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL. 60637, USA)

  • Ruey S. Tsay

    (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL. 60637, USA)

Abstract

We present a general class of nonlinear time-series Markov regime-switching models for seasonal data which may exhibit periodic features in the hidden Markov process as well as in the laws of motion in each of the regimes. This class of models allows for non-trivial dependencies between seasonal, cyclical and long-term patterns in the data. To overcome the computational burden we adopt a Bayesian approach to estimation and inference. This paper contains two empirical examples as illustration, one uses housing starts data while the other employs US post-Second World War industrial production. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 13 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 129-143

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:13:y:1998:i:2:p:129-143

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  1. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1028, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Ghysels, E., 1993. "A Time Series Model with Periodic Stochastic Regime Switching," Cahiers de recherche 9314, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  5. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Smith, Aaron D. & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2005. "Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence," Working Papers 11976, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  3. Carvalho, Alexandre X. & Tanner, Martin A., 2007. "Modelling nonlinear count time series with local mixtures of Poisson autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(11), pages 5266-5294, July.
  4. Bailliu, Jeannine & Dib, Ali & Kano, Takashi & Schembri, Lawrence, 2014. "Multilateral adjustment, regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 68-87.

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