IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gat/wpaper/2035.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A General and Efficient Method for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Albertini

    (Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France)

  • Stéphane Moyen

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

This paper provides a general representation of endogenous and threshold-based regime switching models and develops an efficient numerical solution method. The regime-switching is triggered endogenously when some variables cross threshold conditions that can themselves be regime-dependent. We illustrate our approach using a RBC model with state-dependent government spending policies. It is shown that regime-switching models involve strong non linearities and discontinuities in the dynamics of the model. However, our numerical solution based on simulation and projection methods with regime-dependent policy rules is accurate, and fast enough, to efficiently take into all these challenging aspects. Several alternative specifications to the model and the method are studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Albertini & Stéphane Moyen, 2020. "A General and Efficient Method for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers 2035, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:2035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.gate.cnrs.fr/RePEc/2020/2035.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2000. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1179-1232, July.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    3. Patrick F?ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2013. "A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 141-178, October.
    4. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    5. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2017. "Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching," Working Paper 2017/23, Norges Bank.
    6. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2011. "Numerically stable and accurate stochastic simulation approaches for solving dynamic economic models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 173-210, July.
    7. Krueger, Dirk & Kubler, Felix, 2004. "Computing equilibrium in OLG models with stochastic production," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1411-1436, April.
    8. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 186-221, July.
    9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    10. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah Williams, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 3, pages 077-114, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni & Christian Matthes, 2020. "Detecting And Analyzing The Effects Of Time‐Varying Parameters In Dsge Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-125, February.
    12. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
    13. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2019. "Monetary policy switching and indeterminacy," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 353-385, January.
    14. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Zarruk Valencia , David, 2018. "A Practical Guide to Parallelization in Economics," CEPR Discussion Papers 12890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Hess Chung & Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 809-842, June.
    16. Judd, Kenneth L. & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Valero, Rafael, 2014. "Smolyak method for solving dynamic economic models: Lagrange interpolation, anisotropic grid and adaptive domain," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 92-123.
    17. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    18. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    19. Johannes Brumm & Simon Scheidegger, 2017. "Using Adaptive Sparse Grids to Solve High‐Dimensional Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1575-1612, September.
    20. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2008. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 345-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, July.
    23. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    24. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2011. "A Pitfall with DSGE–Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," 2011 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Park, Joon Y., 2017. "A new approach to model regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 127-143.
    26. Malin, Benjamin A. & Krueger, Dirk & Kubler, Felix, 2011. "Solving the multi-country real business cycle model using a Smolyak-collocation method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 229-239, February.
    27. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    28. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2015. "Merging simulation and projection approaches to solve high‐dimensional problems with an application to a new Keynesian model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(1), pages 1-47, March.
    29. Boneva, Lena & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2018. "Threshold-based forward guidance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 138-155.
    30. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1849-1867, September.
    31. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 51-104, March.
    32. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
    33. Aldrich, EM, 2014. "GPU Computing in Economics," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8p12748g, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    34. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper & Richard H. Clarida & Jesper Lindé, 2006. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change [with Comments]," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2006(1), pages 345-391.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julien Albertini & Valentin Jouvanceau & Stéphane Moyen, 2022. "State-Contingent Forward Guidance," Working Papers 2205, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    2. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "State-dependent Monetary Policy Regimes," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Serguei Maliar & John Taylor & Lilia Maliar, 2016. "The Impact of Alternative Transitions to Normalized Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 794, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 51-104, March.
    6. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    7. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & John B. Taylor & Inna Tsener, 2020. "A tractable framework for analyzing a class of nonstationary Markov models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1289-1323, November.
    8. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/644vfdaim38frrvbit4u0bh0ha is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Judd, Kenneth L. & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Valero, Rafael, 2014. "Smolyak method for solving dynamic economic models: Lagrange interpolation, anisotropic grid and adaptive domain," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 92-123.
    11. Marlon Azinovic & Luca Gaegauf & Simon Scheidegger, 2022. "Deep Equilibrium Nets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1471-1525, November.
    12. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    13. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 637-669, July.
    14. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Oren Levintal, 2018. "Solution methods for models with rare disasters," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 903-944, July.
    15. Andrew T. Foerster, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Switches And Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 211-230, February.
    16. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2019. "Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth," CARF F-Series CARF-F-457, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    17. Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2021. "A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 435-460, August.
    18. Arellano, Cristina & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2016. "Envelope condition method with an application to default risk models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 436-459.
    19. Pablo Cuba‐Borda & Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Molin Zhong, 2019. "Likelihood evaluation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1073-1085, November.
    20. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    21. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regime-switching; RBC model; simulation; accuracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:2035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nelly Wirth (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gateefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.