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Monetary policy switching and indeterminacy

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  • Jean Barthélemy
  • Magali Marx

Abstract

This paper determines conditions for the existence of a unique rational expectations equilibrium—determinacy—in a monetary policy switching economy. We depart from the existing literature by providing such conditions considering all bounded equilibria. We then apply these conditions to a new Keynesian model with switching Taylor rules. First, deviation from the Taylor principle in one regime does not necessarily cause indeterminacy. Second, very different responses to inflation may trigger indeterminacy even if both regimes satisfy the Taylor principle. Determinacy thus results from the adequacy between monetary regimes rather than the determinacy of each of them taken in isolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2019. "Monetary policy switching and indeterminacy," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 353-385, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:10:y:2019:i:1:p:353-385
    DOI: 10.3982/QE673
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    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2020. "Controlling Inflation With Timid Monetary–Fiscal Regime Changes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 1001-1024, May.
    3. Cho, Seonghoon, 2021. "Determinacy and classification of Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Julien Albertini & Valentin Jouvanceau & Stéphane Moyen, 2022. "State-Contingent Forward Guidance," Working Papers 2205, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Roberto M. Billi & Jordi Galí & Anton Nakov, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy with r," Working Papers 1333, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Davide Debortoli & Aeimit Lakdawala, 2016. "How Credible Is the Federal Reserve? A Structural Estimation of Policy Re-optimizations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 42-76, July.
    8. Le Bihan, Hervé & Marx, Magali & Matheron, Julien, 2023. "Inflation tolerance ranges in the New Keynesian model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.
    10. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Controlling inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes," Research Discussion Papers 9/2017, Bank of Finland.
    11. Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2020. "Optimal monetary policy and determinacy under active/passive regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Julien Albertini & Stéphane Moyen, 2020. "A General and Efficient Method for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models," Working Papers 2035, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    13. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    15. Marco Airaudo & Ina Hajdini, 2021. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria In Markov Regime Switching Models And Inflation Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1401-1430, November.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bouabdallah, Othman & Jacquinot, Pascal & Patella, Valeria, 2023. "Monetary/fiscal policy regimes in post-war Europe," Working Paper Series 2871, European Central Bank.
    18. Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2016. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: Leeper (1991) Redux," Economics Series Working Papers 788, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:019 is not listed on IDEAS

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