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The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks

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  • Gospodinov, Nikolay
  • Jamali, Ibrahim

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant response of stock returns and volatility to monetary policy shocks. While the increase in the volatility risk premium, futures-trading volume and leverage appear to contribute to a short-term increase in volatility, the longer-term dynamics of volatility are dominated by monetary policy’s effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not respond to the stock market at a high frequency but that market participants’ uncertainty regarding the monetary stance affects stock market volatility.

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  • Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2015. "The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:42-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2014.11.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market volatility; Federal funds futures; Monetary policy; Volatility risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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