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Multi–regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series

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  • Francesco Battaglia

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  • Mattheos Protopapas
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    Abstract

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00180-011-0259-z
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 319-341

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:27:y:2012:i:2:p:319-341

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=120306

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    Related research

    Keywords: Smooth transition autoregression; Threshold model; Genetic algorithm; 62M10; 90C59; 91B84;

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    References

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    1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    3. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2009. "Time-varying Multi-regime Models Fitting by Genetic Algorithms," Working Papers 009, COMISEF.
    6. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 468-480, June.
    7. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2000. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 376, Stockholm School of Economics.
    8. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J., 1999. "Structural change and time dependence in models of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-308, September.
    9. Yang K. Lu & Pierre Perron, 2008. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Return Volatility Using a Random Level Shift Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Chatterjee, Sangit & Laudato, Matthew & Lynch, Lucy A., 1996. "Genetic algorithms and their statistical applications: an introduction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 633-651, October.
    11. Joseph Tadjuidje Kamgaing & Hernando Ombao & Richard A. Davis, 2009. "Autoregressive processes with data-driven regime switching," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 505-533, 09.
    12. Wu, Berlin & Chang, Chih-Li, 2002. "Using genetic algorithms to parameters (d,r) estimation for threshold autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 315-330, January.
    13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    14. Davis, Richard A. & Lee, Thomas C.M. & Rodriguez-Yam, Gabriel A., 2006. "Structural Break Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 223-239, March.
    15. Baragona, R. & Battaglia, F. & Cucina, D., 2004. "Fitting piecewise linear threshold autoregressive models by means of genetic algorithms," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 277-295, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Francesco Battaglia & Mattheos Protopapas, 2012. "An analysis of global warming in the Alpine region based on nonlinear nonstationary time series models," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 315-334, August.

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