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Monetary Policy And Key Unobservables: Evidence From Large Industrial And Selected Inflation-Targeting Countries

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Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Carl E. Walsh

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Abstract

Among the variables that play critical roles in the design of monetary policy, several are unobservable. These include such key variables as the neutral real rate of interest, the output gap, and the natural rate of unemployment. While individual central banks have undertaken efforts to estimate these unobservables, the approaches have generally been country specific and have not provided either systematic estimation or comparison across countries. We adopt a common estimation approach, applied to a parsimonious monetary-policy model, to provide consistent estimates of key unobservables for the U.S., the Eurozone, and Japan, and several inflation-targeting countries: Australia, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K. Doing so allows us to obtain comparable measures of unobservables across a range of countries. We exploit our estimates to investigate issues of commonalities and convergence across countries in these key but unobservable variables.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 527.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:527

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ricardo Reis, 2003. "Where Is the Natural Rate? Rational Policy Mistakes and Persistent Deviations of Inflation from Target," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  4. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March. [Downloadable!]
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  7. King, Thomas B. & Morley, James, 2007. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 550-564, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2009. "The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 297-319, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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