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Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)

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Author Info

  • Paul Castillo

    ()
    (Central Reserve Bank of Peru)

  • Alberto Humala

    ()
    (Central Reserve Bank of Peru)

  • Vicente Tuesta

    ()
    (Central Reserve Bank of Peru)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a context of monetary policy regime shifts for the Peruvian economy. We use a model of unobserved components subject to regime shifts to evaluate this link. We verify that periods of high(low) inflation me an were accompanied by periods of high(low) both short -and long- run uncertainty in inflation. Interestingly, unlike developed countries, short run uncertainty is important. These relationaships are consistent with the presence of three clearly differentiated regimes. First, a period of price stability, then a high -inflation high-volatility regime, and finally a hyperinflation period. We also verify that during a recent period of price stability, both permanent and transitory shocks to inflation have decreased in volatility. Finally, we find evidence that inflation and money growth rates share similar regime shifts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2007-005.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2007-005

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Related research

Keywords: inflation dynamics; monetary policy; Markov-switching models; unobserved component models; sthocastic trends;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Manfred Esquivel Monge, 2008. "Histéresis en dolarización: evidencias de la economía costarricense," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 361-403, julio-sep.
  2. Daniel Barráez & Carolina Pagliacci, 2008. "Identificación de segmentos de precios en el mercado de fondos overnigth usando modelos ocultos de Markov," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 339-359, julio-sep.
  3. Alberto Humala, 2008. "South American disinflation and regime switches: unobserved volatility components?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 405-425, julio-sep.
  4. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Efficiency of the Monetary Policy and Stability of Central Bank Preferences. Empirical Evidence for Peru," Working Papers 2007-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  5. James J. Heckman, 2008. "Causalidad econométrica," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 291-338, julio-sep.
  6. Rodríguez,Gabriel, 2008. "Eficiencia de la política monetaria y la estabilidad de las preferencias del Banco Central. Evidencia empírica para el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 15, pages 9-20.
  7. Carla Ysusi, 2009. "Analysis of the Dynamics of Mexican Inflation Using Wavelets," Working Papers 2009-09, Banco de México.
  8. Laura D´Amato & Lorena Garegnani & Juan M. Sotes Paladino, 2007. "Inflation Persistence and Changes in the Monetary Regime: The Argentine Case," BCRA Working Paper Series 200723, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  9. Salas, Jorge, 2009. "¿Qué explica las fluctuaciones de la inflación en el Perú en el periodo 2002-2008? Evidencia de un análisis VAR estructural," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 9-36.

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