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The link between inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from G7 countries

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  • Ramaprasad Bhar

    ()

  • Shigeyuki Hamori

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we adopt the Markov-switching heteroscedasticity model to analyse the inflation series for G7 countries and examine the interaction between inflation rate and its uncertainty over both the short- and long-run. It is found that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty depends on whether the shock is permanent or transitory. The relationship also differs from country to country. High uncertainty about long-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Canada, Germany, and Japan. High uncertainty about short-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Germany and USA, and a significant negative shift in inflation for Canada. The modelling approach employed in this paper is empirically supported by various diagnostics including the Vuong test. We also derive the two components of the variance of inflation forecast for a particular forecast horizon. It is found that the inflation uncertainty increases at all horizons in the middle of 1970s and return to the low level in the middle of 1980s. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-004-0220-x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 825-853

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:29:y:2004:i:4:p:825-853

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Related research

Keywords: Markov-switching heteroscedasticity model; inflation; inflation uncertainty; C5; E3;

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Cited by:
  1. Karunaratne, Neil Dias & Bhar, Ramprasad, 2011. "Regime-shifts and post-float inflation dynamics of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1941-1949, July.
  2. Donal Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2007. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and Markov regime switching heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European countries," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 125, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Paul Castillo & Alberto Humala & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)," Working Papers 2007-005, Banco Central de Reserva del PerĂº.
  4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Nonlinearities and the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt: New evidence from wavelets transform framework," MPRA Paper 52414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Neil Dias Karunaratne & Ramprasad Bhar, 2010. "Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia," Discussion Papers Series 405, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  6. Ramprasad Bhar & Girijasankar Mallik, 2012. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 305-318, December.
  7. Muhammad Azam & Muhammad Khan & Nasir Iqbal, 2012. "Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, September.
  8. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 111, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  9. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2007. "Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist? Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability," Working papers 2007-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009.
  11. Kuang-Liang Chang & Chi-Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, 03.
  12. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye & Chandana Chakraborty & Serapio Byekwaso, 2012. "Uncertainty of inflation and inflation rate: Does credibility of inflation policy matter?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 95-110, September.

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