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Macroeconomic and Financial Consequences of the Post-Crisis Government-Driven Credit Expansion in Brazil

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Abstract

Government-driven credit played an important role in countervailing the private credit crunch in Brazil during the recent financial crisis. However, government credit concessions continued to expand after the economy recovered. This paper investigates some important features of this expansion using a huge repository of loan contracts between banks and firms, composing an unbalanced panel of almost 1 million firms between 2004 and 2012. The results show that larger, older and less risky firms have benefited most from the government-sponsored credit expansion. Additionally, although higher access to earmarked credit tends to lead to higher leverage, the effect on investment appears to be insignificant for publicly traded firms. Since interest rates on earmarked loans are lower than market interest rates, firms with higher access to this type of loan tend to lower the cost of debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonomo, Marco & Brito, Ricardo & Martins, Bruno, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Financial Consequences of the Post-Crisis Government-Driven Credit Expansion in Brazil," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6827, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:6827
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Vega & Adrian Armas & Paul Castillo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Quantitative Tightening: Effects of Reserve Requirements in Peru," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 133-175, June.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Ukraine: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/047, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marjan Petreski, 2010. "An Overhaul of a Doctrine: Has Inflation Targeting Opened a New Era in Developing-country Peggers?," FIW Working Paper series 057, FIW.
    4. Alberto Ortiz & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Estimating Sarb'S Policy Reaction Rule," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(4), pages 659-680, December.
    5. Ramos, María Gracia & Winkelried, Diego, 2016. "Tendencias comunes en el índice de precios al consumidor," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 31, pages 29-44.
    6. Lage de Sousa, Filipe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P., 2018. "Relaxing credit constraints in emerging economies: The impact of public loans on the productivity of Brazilian manufacturers," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 23-47.
    7. Paul Castillo & Alberto Humala & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)," Working Papers 2007-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    8. Marco Vega & Adrian Armas & Paul Castillo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Quantitative Tightening: Effects of Reserve Requirements in Peru," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 133-175, June.
    9. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    10. Kayo, Eduardo K. & Silva, Walter Eclache da & Martelanc, Roy, 2023. "The two faces of subsidized loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    11. Melesse Tashu, 2015. "Drivers of Peru's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Is the Nuevo Sol a Commodity Currency?," IMF Working Papers 2015/026, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Fei Han, 2014. "Measuring External Risks for Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy," IMF Working Papers 2014/161, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Alejandro M. Werner, 2016. "Central Banking in Latin America: The Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2016/197, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    State ownership of banks; Investment; Crisis management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • L3 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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