Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Reconnecting the Markov Switching Model with Economic Fundamentals

Contents:

Author Info

  • Erlandsson, Ulf

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

This paper seeks to investigate and remedy the apparent inability of Markov regime switching models to predict future states in the medium to long term. We show that projected time varying transition probability series in the model may be biased towards predicting regime switches with high probability in the short run, and as a consequence it is hard or impossible to obtain longer run inference. We propose a penalized maximum likelihood estimator where non-smoothness in the transition series has negative influence on the likelihood function, which is shown to remedy the short run bias. In an empirical investigation of U.S. real GDP, the penalized model works better in terms of forecasting future recessions as defined by the NBER business cycle dating.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP04_4.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2004:4.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jan 2004
Date of revision: 18 Mar 2004
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2004_004

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: regime switching; transition probability; forecasting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Erlandsson, Ulf G., 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 314-320, July.
  3. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  4. Gordon, S.F. & Filardo, A.J., 1993. "Business Cycle Durations," Papers 9328, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
  5. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Rydén, Tobias & Teräsvirta, Timo & Åsbrink, Stefan, 1996. "Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 117, Stockholm School of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2004_004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.