IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v56y2018icp221-237.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hedge fund performance attribution under various market conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Stafylas, Dimitrios
  • Anderson, Keith
  • Uddin, Moshfique

Abstract

We investigate US hedge funds' performance. Our proposed model contains exogenous and endogenous break points, based on business cycles and on a regime switching process conditional on different states of the market. During difficult market conditions most hedge fund strategies do not provide significant alphas. At such times hedge funds reduce both the number of their exposures to different asset classes and their portfolio allocations, while some strategies even reverse their exposures. Directional strategies share more common exposures under all market conditions compared to non-directional strategies. Factors related to commodity asset classes are more common during these difficult conditions whereas factors related to equity asset classes are most common during good market conditions. Falling stock markets are harsher than recessions for hedge funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Stafylas, Dimitrios & Anderson, Keith & Uddin, Moshfique, 2018. "Hedge fund performance attribution under various market conditions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 221-237.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:221-237
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2018.01.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521918300383
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.01.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    2. Lawrence Brown & Marcus Caylor, 2009. "Corporate governance and firm operating performance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 129-144, February.
    3. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, April.
    4. Tarun Ramadorai, 2012. "The Secondary Market for Hedge Funds and the Closed Hedge Fund Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 479-512, April.
    5. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Hentati-Kaffel, Rania & de Peretti, Philippe, 2015. "Generalized runs tests to detect randomness in hedge funds returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 608-615.
    7. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    8. Loriana Pelizzon & Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky, 2008. "Crisis and Hedge Fund Risk," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    10. Daniel P. J. Capocci, 2009. "The persistence in hedge fund performance: extended analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 233-255.
    11. Aebi, Vincent & Sabato, Gabriele & Schmid, Markus, 2012. "Risk management, corporate governance, and bank performance in the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3213-3226.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    13. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January.
    14. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    15. Jawadi, Fredj & Khanniche, Sabrina, 2012. "Modeling hedge fund exposure to risk factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1003-1018.
    16. Hentati-Kaffel Rania & Peretti Philippe De, 2015. "Generalized runs tests to detect randomness in hedge funds returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01315425, HAL.
    17. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2011. "Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 36-68, July.
    18. Harris, Richard D.F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2010. "Dynamic hedge fund portfolio construction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 351-357, December.
    19. Rania Hentati & Philippe de Peretti, 2015. "Generalized runs tests to detect randomness in hedge funds returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01299827, HAL.
    20. Denvir, Emily & Hutson, Elaine, 2006. "The performance and diversification benefits of funds of hedge funds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 4-22, February.
    21. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
    22. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Dynamic risk exposures in hedge funds," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3517-3532.
    23. Rania Hentati-Kaffel & Philippe de Peretti, 2015. "Generalized runs tests to detect randomness in hedge funds returns," Post-Print hal-02091678, HAL.
    24. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    25. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2014. "Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-19.
    26. Giannikis, Dimitrios & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2011. "A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1399-1414, June.
    27. Avramov, Doron & Barras, Laurent & Kosowski, Robert, 2013. "Hedge Fund Return Predictability Under the Magnifying Glass," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1057-1083, August.
    28. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-341.
    29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    30. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    31. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2009. "Hedge Fund Risk Dynamics: Implications for Performance Appraisal," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 985-1035, April.
    32. Jefferson Duarte & Francis A. Longstaff & Fan Yu, 2007. "Risk and Return in Fixed-Income Arbitrage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 769-811.
    33. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2016. "Macroeconomic shocks, forward-looking dynamics, and the behavior of hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 41-61.
    34. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
    35. Gleich, Benedikt & Achzet, Benjamin & Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 350-362.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Fan & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2022. "Hedge Fund Performance: A Quantitative Survey," EconStor Preprints 260612, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2019. "Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 73-97.
    3. Canepa, Alessandra & de la O. González, María & Skinner, Frank S., 2020. "Hedge fund strategies: A non-parametric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Ma, Tianyi & Tee, Kai-Hong & Li, Baibing, 2022. "Timing the volatility risk of beta anomaly: Evidence from hedge fund strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Gregoriou, Greg N. & Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2021. "The response of hedge fund tail risk to macroeconomic shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 843-872.
    6. Leonardo Badea & Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Iulian Panait & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, March.
    7. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    8. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander, 2022. "The crisis alpha of managed futures: Myth or reality?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Newton, David & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Stafylas, Dimitrios & Sutcliffe, Charles & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Hedge fund strategies, performance &diversification: A portfolio theory & stochastic discount factor approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    10. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hedge fund performance persistence under different business cycles and stock market regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Anderson, Keith & Uddin, Moshfique, 2017. "Recent advances in explaining hedge fund returns: Implicit factors and exposures," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 69-87.
    2. Newton, David & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Stafylas, Dimitrios & Sutcliffe, Charles & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Hedge fund strategies, performance &diversification: A portfolio theory & stochastic discount factor approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    3. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios, 2020. "Determinants of hedge fund performance during ‘good’ and ‘bad’ economic periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hedge fund performance persistence under different business cycles and stock market regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    6. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    7. Roumpis, Efthymios & Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2014. "Dynamics and risk factors in hedge funds returns: Implications for portfolio construction and performance evaluation," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 58-77.
    8. Gregoriou, Greg N. & Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2021. "The response of hedge fund tail risk to macroeconomic shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 843-872.
    9. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2019. "Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 212-229.
    10. Yang, Fan & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2022. "Hedge Fund Performance: A Quantitative Survey," EconStor Preprints 260612, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    12. Lambert, Marie & Platania, Federico, 2020. "The macroeconomic drivers in hedge fund beta management," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 65-80.
    13. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization for Hedge Funds through Time-Varying Coefficients," Working Papers CEB 13-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond & Gregoriou, Greg N., 2021. "The response of hedge fund higher moment risk to macroeconomic and illiquidity shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 289-318.
    15. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis & Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Trading off accuracy for speed: Hedge funds' decision-making under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Namvar, Ethan & Phillips, Blake & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Raghavendra Rau, P., 2016. "Do hedge funds dynamically manage systematic risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Leverage and Alpha: The Case of Funds of Hedge Funds," Working Papers CEB 13-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2013. "Forecasting hedge fund volatility: a Markov regime-switching approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 243-275, April.
    19. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    20. Turan G. Bali & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Have Hedge Funds Solved the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle?," Working Papers on Finance 1827, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:221-237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.