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Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?

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Author Info

  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Brown, Stephen J.
  • Caglayan, Mustafa Onur

Abstract

This paper investigates hedge funds' exposures to various financial and macroeconomic risk factors through alternative measures of factor betas and examines their performance in predicting the cross-sectional variation in hedge fund returns. Both parametric and non-parametric tests indicate a significantly positive (negative) link between default premium beta (inflation beta) and future hedge fund returns. The results are robust across different subsample periods and states of the economy, and after controlling for market, size, book-to-market, and momentum factors as well as the trend-following factors in stocks, short-term interest rates, currencies, bonds, and commodities. The paper also provides macro-level and micro-level explanations of our findings.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 36-68

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:101:y:2011:i:1:p:36-68

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

Related research

Keywords: Hedge funds Return predictability Risk factors;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
  2. Huang, Shiyang & Qiu, Zhigang & Shang, Qi & Tang, Ke, 2013. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and relative performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4107-4119.
  3. Horst, Jenke ter & Salganik, Galla, 2014. "Style chasing by hedge fund investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 29-42.
  4. Olmo, José & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2012. "Forecasting the performance of hedge fund styles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2351-2365.
  5. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2012. "Systematic risk and the cross section of hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 114-131.

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