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Emerging Market Exposures and the Predictability of Hedge Fund Returns

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  • Mustafa Onur Caglayan
  • Sevan Ulutas

Abstract

type="main"> We examine emerging market and global macro hedge funds and find a significant positive relation between hedge funds’ future returns and their exposure to both emerging market equities and emerging market currencies. We present evidence that the strong predictive power of emerging market betas is related to the superior market-timing ability of these fund managers. Results are robust after controlling for commonly used hedge fund factors, the emerging market equity index, lagged fund returns, liquidity risk, and fund characteristics. Our results suggest that hedge funds can earn positive excess returns by timing their exposure to emerging market securities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Onur Caglayan & Sevan Ulutas, 2014. "Emerging Market Exposures and the Predictability of Hedge Fund Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 149-180, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:43:y:2014:i:1:p:149-180
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    3. Aiken, Adam L. & Kilic, Osman & Reid, Sean, 2016. "Can hedge funds time global equity markets? Evidence from emerging markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 2-11.
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    5. Adam L. Aiken & Osman Kilic & Sean Reid, 2016. "Can hedge funds time global equity markets? Evidence from emerging markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 2-11, April.
    6. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2014. "Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-19.

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