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Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation

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  • Ravi Jagannathan
  • Alexey Malakhov
  • Dmitry Novikov

Abstract

We examine whether hot hands exist among hedge fund managers. In measuring performance persistence, we use hedge fund style benchmarks. This allows us to identify managers with valuable skills, and also to control for option-like features inherent in returns from hedge fund strategies. We take into account the possibility that reported asset values may be based on stale prices. We develop a statistical model that relates a hedge fund’s performance to its decision to liquidate or close in order to infer the performance of a hedge fund that left the database. While we find significant performance persistence among superior funds we find little evidence of persistence among inferior funds.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12015.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Publication status: published as “Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation.” forthcoming in Journal of Finance 2009
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12015

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  1. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January.
  2. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
  3. Stephen J. Brown, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October.
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  5. Baquero, Guillermo & ter Horst, Jenke & Verbeek, Marno, 2005. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias, and Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(03), pages 493-517, September.
  6. Daniel Capocci, 2002. "An Analysis of Hedge Fund Performance," Finance 0210001, EconWPA.
  7. Arik Ben Dor & Ravi Jagannathan, 2002. "Understanding Mutual Fund and Hedge Fund Styles Using Return Based Style Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 309-326, September.
  9. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2005. "Hedge Funds," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 103-169, November.
  10. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Mutual fund performance and seemingly unrelated assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 315-349, March.
  11. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
  12. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Investing in equity mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 351-380, March.
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  14. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
  15. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 291-307, September.
  16. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  17. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2000. "Multi-Period Performance Persistence Analysis of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 327-342, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andrew Ang & Sergiy Gorovyy & Gregory B. van Inwegen, 2011. "Hedge Fund Leverage," NBER Working Papers 16801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Rabin, Matthew & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2007. "The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Tarun Ramadorai, 2012. "The Secondary Market for Hedge Funds and the Closed Hedge Fund Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 479-512, 04.
  5. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2011. "Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 36-68, July.
  6. Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "Hedge Funds: Past, Present, and Future," Working Paper Series 2007-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  7. Jiaqi Chen & Michael L. Tindall, 2012. "Risk measurement illiquidity distortions," Occasional Papers 12-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Bernhardt, Dan & Nosal, Ed, 2013. "Gambling for Dollars: Strategic Hedge Fund Manager Investment," Working Paper Series WP-2013-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Cao, Charles & Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing & Lo, Andrew W., 2013. "Can hedge funds time market liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 493-516.
  10. Glode, Vincent & Green, Richard C., 2011. "Information spillovers and performance persistence for hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-17, July.
  11. repec:fip:feddop:2 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Zhi Da & Pengjie Gao & Ravi Jagannathan, 2008. "Informed Trading, Liquidity Provision, and Stock Selection by Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 14609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Berzins, Janis & Liu, Crocker H. & Trzcinka, Charles, 2013. "Asset management and investment banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 215-231.
  14. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2011. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Cécile Moigne & Patrick Savaria, 2006. "Relative importance of hedge fund characteristics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 419-441, December.
  16. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2012. "Systematic risk and the cross section of hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 114-131.
  17. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na & Haß, Lars Helge & Schweizer, Denis, 2012. "Regulatory induced performance persistence: Evidence from hedge funds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1005-1022.

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