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Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation

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Author Info
Ravi Jagannathan
Alexey Malakhov
Dmitry Novikov

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Abstract

We examine whether hot hands exist among hedge fund managers. In measuring performance persistence, we use hedge fund style benchmarks. This allows us to identify managers with valuable skills, and also to control for option-like features inherent in returns from hedge fund strategies. We take into account the possibility that reported asset values may be based on stale prices. We develop a statistical model that relates a hedge fund’s performance to its decision to liquidate or close in order to infer the performance of a hedge fund that left the database. While we find significant performance persistence among superior funds we find little evidence of persistence among inferior funds.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12015.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12015

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I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Mutual fund performance and seemingly unrelated assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 315-349, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2002. "Investing in equity mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 351-380, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Baquero, G. & Horst, J.R. ter & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2002. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Research Paper ERS-2002-104-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Mark Mitchell, 2001. "Characteristics of Risk and Return in Risk Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2135-2175, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Baquero, Guillermo & ter Horst, Jenke & Verbeek, Marno, 2005. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias, and Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(03), pages 493-517, September. [Downloadable!]
  9. Stephen J. Brown, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 309-326, September. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
  12. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Arik Ben Dor & Ravi Jagannathan, 2002. "Understanding Mutual Fund and Hedge Fund Styles Using Return Based Style Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ramadorai, Tarun, 2008. "The Secondary Market for Hedge Funds and the Closed-Hedge Fund Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 6877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "Hedge Funds: Past, Present, and Future," Working Paper Series 2007-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zhi Da & Pengjie Gao & Ravi Jagannathan, 2008. "Informed Trading, Liquidity Provision, and Stock Selection by Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 14609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cécile Moigne & Patrick Savaria, 2006. "Relative importance of hedge fund characteristics," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 419-441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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