An Extreme Value Approach to Estimating Volatility and Value at Risk
AbstractThis article determines the type of asymptotic distribution for the extreme changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The thin-tailed Gumbel and exponential distributions are strongly rejected against the fat-tailed Frechet and Pareto distributions. The empirical results indicate that the volatility of maximal and minimal changes in interest rates declines as time-to-maturity rises, yielding a downward-sloping volatility curve for the extremes. The article proposes an extreme value approach to estimating value at risk and shows that the statistical theory of extremes provides a more accurate approach for risk management and value at risk (VaR) calculations than the standard models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.
Volume (Year): 76 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Bali, Turan G. & Weinbaum, David, 2007. "A conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 361-397, February.
- S. T. M. Straetmans & W. F. C. Verschoor & C. C. P. Wolff, 2008. "Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 17-42.
- Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for marginal asymmetry of weakly dependent processes," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
- Chao Huang & Jin-Guan Lin & Yan-Yan Ren, 2013. "Testing for the shape parameter of generalized extreme value distribution based on the $$L_q$$ -likelihood ratio statistic," Metrika, Springer, vol. 76(5), pages 641-671, July.
- Allen, Linda & Bali, Turan G., 2007. "Cyclicality in catastrophic and operational risk measurements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1191-1235, April.
- Bali, Turan G. & Gokcan, Suleyman & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Value at risk and the cross-section of hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1135-1166, April.
- Young Shin Kim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & Mitov, Ivan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2010.
"Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns,"
Working Paper Series in Economics
2, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
- Kim, Young Shin & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & Mitov, Ivan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1879-1891, August.
- Grazyna Trzpiot & Justyna Majewska, 2010. "Estimation of Value at Risk: Extreme value and robust approaches," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 1, pages 131-143.
- Gupta, Anurag & Liang, Bing, 2005. "Do hedge funds have enough capital? A value-at-risk approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 219-253, July.
- Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait, 2007. "Filtered Extreme Value Theory for Value-At-Risk Estimation," MPRA Paper 3302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fong Chan, Kam & Gray, Philip, 2006. "Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 283-300.
- Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim & Wolf, Avner, 2009. "Bonds versus stocks: Investors' age and risk taking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 817-830, September.
- Krehbiel, Tim & Adkins, Lee C., 2008. "Extreme daily changes in U.S. Dollar London inter-bank offer rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 397-411.
- Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.
- Huang, Wei & Liu, Qianqiu & Ghon Rhee, S. & Wu, Feng, 2012. "Extreme downside risk and expected stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1492-1502.
- Konstantinos Tolikas, 2011. "The rare event risk in African emerging stock markets," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 275-294, March.
- repec:ner:maastr:urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-13933 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bali, Turan G. & Mo, Hengyong & Tang, Yi, 2008. "The role of autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis in the estimation of conditional VaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-282, February.
- Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. Médecin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Zisheng Ouyang, 2009. "Model choice and value-at-risk estimation," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 983-991, November.
- Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2011. "Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 36-68, July.
- Tolikas, Konstantinos & Gettinby, Gareth D., 2009. "Modelling the distribution of the extreme share returns in Singapore," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 254-263, March.
- Eleanor Xu, Xiaoqing & Chen, Peter & Wu, Chunchi, 2006. "Time and dynamic volume-volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1535-1558, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journals Division).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.