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Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal

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  • António Afonso
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

Drawing on quarterly data for Portugal, we use a Three-Stage Least Square method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy – responsiveness and persistence – and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). The results suggest that: (i) government spending exhibits higher persistence than government revenue; and (ii) government revenue is more responsive to the business cycle than government spending.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp032009.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon. in its series Working Papers with number 2009/03.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp32009

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: Fiscal deterioration; Portugal.;

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References

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  1. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
  2. Christophe Rault & Antonio Alfonso, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp893, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Ahmed, S. & Rogers, J.H., 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?," Papers 5-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  4. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach," NIPE Working Papers 7/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
  6. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responiveness, Persistence and Discretion," Working Papers 2008/50, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
  8. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc.
  9. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  10. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
  11. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
  12. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 991, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Natália P. Monteiro & Paulo Bastos, 2009. "Managers and wage policies," NIPE Working Papers 2/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers 2013/01, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..

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