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Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered

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Author Info
S. Lael Brainard
David M. Cutler

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Abstract

This paper examines the importance of sectoral reallocation and cyclical unemployment; in the postwar US economy. It develops a new measure of reallocation shocks based on the variance of industry stock market excess returns over time, termed cross section volatility. Data on unemployment and vacancies is used to establish that the cross section volatility series is effective in isolating reallocation shocks. The series is then used to measure the contribution of reallocation shocks to aggregate unemployment and to unemployment; of varying durations. On average, about 40 percent of aggregate unemployment is explained by reallocation, but much of the variance of unemployment through time is better explained by cyclical shocks. Reallocation shocks account; for a relatively larger share of long duration unemployment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3491.

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Date of creation: Oct 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3491

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  1. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2009. "Capital misallocation and aggregate factor productivity," MPRA Paper 15733, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper Series 27-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, . "Intersectoral Labour Reallocation and Employment Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis using a VAR-GARCH-M model," Discussion Papers 99/4, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003. "The Measurement of Persistence and Hysteresis in Aggregate Unemployment," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0311002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hesna Genay & Prakash Loungani, 1997. "Labor market fluctuations in Japan and the U.S.--how similar are they?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 15-28. [Downloadable!]
  8. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 1997. "Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs aggregate shocks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-15. [Downloadable!]
  9. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Patrick Kline, 2008. "Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1645, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Paul Blackley, 2000. "The impact of sectoral shifts in investment on unemployment in U.S. labor markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 435-449, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. von Greiff, Camilo, 2007. "Specialization in Higher Education and Economic Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2007:13, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andrew Figura, 2003. "The effect of restructuring on unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Andrew Figura, 2002. "Is reallocation related to the cycle? A look at permanent and temporary job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Sectoral Trends and Cycles in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1996. "On the Driving Forces Behind Cyclical Movement, in Employment and Job Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 5775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Keith Sill, 1998. "Restructuring during recessions: a silver lining in the cloud?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 15-31. [Downloadable!]
  18. repec:wop:ubisop:0004 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Kline, Patrick, 2008. "Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry," Working Papers 43, Yale University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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