This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Intersectoral Labour Reallocation and Employment Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis using a VAR-GARCH-M model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Gianluigi Pelloni
Wolfgang Polasek

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Based on the macroeconomic VAR model for total employment and sectoral employment shares developed by Campbell and Kuttner (1996) we extend the model to a multivariate ARCH in mean (ARCH- M) model. We investigate the question of whether volatile growth in sectoral employment shares has an impact on total employment. The estimation method we use is the Gibbs-Metropolis algorithm for a Bayesian vector ARCH (B-VAR) model. This model is a standard tool in Financial econometrics and was developed by Engle (1986). The Bayesian estimation gives an exact small sample solution. It is found that a model incorporating a GARCH-M structure performs better than a simple VAR. Moreover sectoral shocks can account for more than 60% of the variance of total employment growth within a VAR-GARCH-M framework.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/econ/documents/dp/9904.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 99/4.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:99/4

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 433776
Fax: (0)1904 433759
Email:
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/econ/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Michael Shallcross).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brainard, S Lael & Cutler, David M, 1993. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 219-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1996. "Aggregate employment fluctuations with microeconomic asymmetries," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 112, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1996. "Macroeconomic effects of employment reallocation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 87-116, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Davis, Steven J., 1987. "Fluctuations in the pace of labor reallocation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 335-402, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "A Statistical Approach to Economic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-4, January.
  9. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes regression with autoregressive errors : A Gibbs sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 275-294, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark & Tave, William, 1990. "Stock market dispersion and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 367-388, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Mills, Terence C & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1995. "Unemployment Fluctuations in the United States: Further Tests of the Sectoral-Shifts Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 294-304, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Starr-McCluer, Martha, 1993. "Cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation : A reexamination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 417-425, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:2:p:171-261 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 775-88, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Neumann, George R & Topel, Robert H, 1991. "Employment Risk, Diversification, and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1341-65, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-22, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper Series 27-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. repec:wop:ubisop:0003 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Sectoral Shocks in Germany, The U.K. and, The U.S. A VAR-GARCH-M Approach," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 65-85, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reallocation Shocks: A generalised impulse response function analysis for three European countries," Discussion Paper Series 2003_15, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised 2003. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:wop:ubisop:0004 is not listed on IDEAS
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.