Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

When and how US dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis? Evidence from the cross-currency swap market

Contents:

Author Info

  • Baba, Naohiko
  • Sakurai, Yuji
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper investigates when and how the US dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis in the cross-currency swap market between major European currencies and the US dollar during the turmoil of 2007-2009, using the dynamic factor model with regime-switching [beta] coefficients of each swap price with respect to the latent common factor. The 1-year market entered the high-[beta] crisis regime soon after the onset of the subprime problem in August 2007. The 10-year market entered that regime following the collapse of Bear Sterns in mid-March 2008. Financial credit spreads have significant predictive power for switches between high and low-[beta] regimes.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-51FGT04-2/2/150059b9de580ba15704b3ac194370b2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1450-1463

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:6:p:1450-1463

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Global financial crisis US dollar shortage Currency swap Dynamic factor model Regime-switching;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    3. Smith, Aaron D. & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2005. "Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence," Working Papers 11976, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2007. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/27, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Fletcher, Donna J & Taylor, Larry W, 1996. ""Swap" Covered Interest Parity in Long-Date Capital Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 530-38, August.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2009. "Does the law of one price hold in international financial markets? Evidence from tick data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1741-1754, October.
    9. Fong, Wai-Ming & Valente, Giorgio & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2010. "Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1098-1107, May.
    10. Menkveld, Albert J. & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre, 2007. "Modeling Around-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks Using State Space Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 213-225, April.
    11. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. " Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-49, July.
    13. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
    14. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged Carry Trade Portfolios," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0822, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    15. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-91, June.
    16. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    17. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," BIS Working Papers 285, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Naohiko Baba & Frank Packer & Teppei Nagano, 2008. "The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:6:p:1450-1463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.