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From turmoil to crisis: dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers

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  • Naohiko Baba
  • Frank Packer
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates dislocations in the foreign exchange (FX) swap market between the US dollar and three major European currencies. After the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) were negatively associated with the creditworthiness of US financial institutions (as well as that of European institutions), consistent with the deepening of a dollar liquidity problem into a global phenomenon. US dollar term funding auctions by the ECB, SNB, and BoE, as well as the US Federal Reserve commitment to provide unlimited dollar swap lines are found to have ameliorated the FX swap market dislocations.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 285.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:285

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    Related research

    Keywords: FX swap; Covered interest parity; Financial market turmoil; Counterparty risk; US dollar swap lines; Term auction facility; Central bank cooperation; Lehman bankruptcy;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    2. Jacob Gyntelberg & Philip Wooldridge, 2008. "Interbank rate fixings during the recent turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. James McAndrews & Asani Sarkar & Zhenyu Wang, 2008. "The effect of the Term Auction Facility on the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate," Staff Reports 335, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Akram, Qaisar Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," CEPR Discussion Papers 6878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    6. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
    7. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    8. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2008. "International banking activity amidst the turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    9. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-59, Nov.-Dec..
    10. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1998. "Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words," Working Papers 98-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 14612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    14. Michael Melvin & Vincentiu Covrig & Buen Low, . "A Yen is not a Yen: TIBOR/LIBOR and the determinants of the 'Japan Premium'," Working Papers 2133360, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
    15. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The crisis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1317-1330, December.
    16. Beine, Michel & Janssen, Gust & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Should central bankers talk to the foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 776-803, September.
    17. Fran├žois-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    18. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. " Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-49, July.
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