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Modelling multiple regimes in financial volatility with a flexible coefficient GARCH model

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Cunha Medeiros

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

  • Alvaro Veiga

    (Department of Electrical Engineering PUC-Rio)

Abstract

In this paper a flexible GARCH-type model is developed with the aim of describing sign and size asymmetries in financial volatility as well as intermittent dynamics and excess of kurtosis. A sufficient condition for strict stationarity and ergodicity of the model is established and the existence of the second- and fourth-order moments is discussed. It is shown that the model may have explosive regimes and still be strictly stationary and ergodic. Furthermore, estimation of the parameters is carefully addressed and the asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator is derived. A modeling cycle based on a sequence of simple and easily implemented Lagrange multiplier tests is discussed in order to avoid the estimation of unidentified models. A Monte-Carlo experiment is designed to evaluate the methodology. Empirical examples are used to illustrate the use of the model in practical situations.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Alvaro Veiga, 2004. "Modelling multiple regimes in financial volatility with a flexible coefficient GARCH model," Textos para discussão 486, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: An adaptive FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1577-1592, August.
    2. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    3. Theis Lange & Anders Rahbek & Søren Tolver Jensen, 2011. "Estimation and Asymptotic Inference in the AR-ARCH Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 129-153.

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    Keywords

    Volatility; GARCH models; multiple regimes; nonlinear time series; smooth transition; finance; asymmetry; leverage effect; excess of kurtosis.;
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