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Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models

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Author Info
Alvaro Escribano
Oscar Jorda

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Abstract

This paper extends previous work in Escribano and Jorda (1997) and introduces new LM specification procedures to choose between Logistic and Exponential Smooth Transition Regression (STR) Models. These procedures are simpler, consistent and more powerful than those previously available in the literature. An analysis of the properties of Taylor approximations around the transition function of STR models permits one to understand why these procedures work better and it suggests ways to improve tests of the null hypothesis of linearity versus the alternative of STR-type nonlinearity. Monte-Carlo experiments illustrate the performance of the different tests introduced. The new procedures are then implemented on a study of the dynamics of the U.S. unemployment rate.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 97-26.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:97-26

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  1. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1992. "Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-91, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Burgess, Simon M, 1988. "Employment Adjustment in UK Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 81-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Burgess, Simon M & Dolado, Juan J, 1989. "Intertemporal Rules with Variable Speed of Adjustment: An Application to U.K. Manufacturing Employment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 347-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pfann, Gerard A & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "Asymmetric Adjustment Costs in Non-linear Labour Demand Models for the Netherlands and U.K. Manufacturing Sectors," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 397-412, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Pesaran, H.M. & Potter, S.M., 1995. "A Floor and Ceiling Model of U.S. Output," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  7. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Álvaro Escribano & Oscar Jordá, 2001. "Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 193-209. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working Papers 88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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