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La prévision des taux d’intérêt à partir de contrats futures : l’apport de variables économiques et financières

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Coffinet, J.
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File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications/telechar/ner/ner193.pdf
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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Documents de Travail with number 193.

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Length: 40 pages Abstract This study evaluates the predictive content of the 3-month Euribor contracts futures. We initially show that there is a forecast error on these contracts, on average positive and increasing with the forecast horizon. Then, we propose a method for correcting futures rates thanks to macroeconomic and financial variables. Finally, in the framework of an out-of-sample forecast exercise, we demonstate that corrected rates are better forecasts of future monetary policy path on the medium-term.
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:193

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy ; Interest Rate Forecast ; Futures Contracts ; Forecast Error ; Risk Premia.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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  1. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. J. Benson Durham, 2003. "Estimates of the term premium on near-dated federal funds futures contracts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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