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Non-linear multivariate adjustment of the UK real exchange rate

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  • Milas, C.

Abstract

Based on a multivariate non-linear model, this paper recognises an important role for the real exchange rate in affecting UK labour market conditions. The short-run real exchange rate adjusts quickly to disequilibrium deviations of the real exchange rate from its long-run level outside a rather wide interval band. When the real exchange rate is undervalued, short-run unemployment falls as firms respond to an improvement in domestic competitiveness by increasing their demand for labour. Further, there is a strong response of short-run unemployment to the disequilibrium error outside a narrow interval band. To the extent that the real exchange rate equation reflects monetary policy considerations, our results imply that unemployment can be targeted by economic policy. Furthermore, if economic authorities want to avoid large swings in unemployment then they should be prepared to intervene in exchange markets with the aim of keeping real exchange rate movements within a narrow interval band.

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File URL: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/1422/1/0308_milas.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, City University London in its series Working Papers with number 03/08.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:03/08

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Postal: Department of Economics, Social Sciences Building, City University London, Whiskin Street, London, EC1R 0JD, United Kingdom,
Phone: +44 (0)20 7040 8500
Web page: http://www.city.ac.uk
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Keywords: Real exchange rate; Traded goods; Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction Model;

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