Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle

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Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle

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Andrew B. Abel

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Andrew Abel

Abstract

This paper derives simple closed-form solutions for expected rates of return on stocks and riskless one-period bills under the assumption that shocks to the growth rates of consumption and dividends are generated by a Markov regime-switching process. These closed-form solutions are used to show that the Markov regime-switching process exacerbates the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle. Three empirical examples illustrate the magnitude of the effects of Markov regime switching on equilibrium expected returns.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 9-92.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:9-92

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Article
- Abel, Andrew B, 1994. "Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 345-61, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- Andrew B. Abel, 1992. "Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Andrew B. Abel, . "Exact Solutions for Expected Rates of Return Under Markov Regime Switching: Implications for the Equity Premium Puzzle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 09-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Clark, 1991. "The Equity Premium and the Risk Free Rate: Matching the Moments," NBER Working Papers 3752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1131, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
Marco Bonomo & René Garcia, 1994. "Disappointment Aversion as a Solution to the Equity Premium and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," CIRANO Working Papers 94s-14, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Garcia, R. & Bonomo, M., 1993. "Disappointment Aversion as a Solution to the Equity Premium and the Risk- Free Rate Puzzles," Cahiers de recherche 9334, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Marco Antonio Bonomo & Rene Garcia, 1993. "Disappointment aversion as a solution to the equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles," Textos para discussÃ£o 308, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
Nelson C. Mark & S.G. Cecchetti & P-s. Lam, 1997. "Asset Pricing under Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," Working Papers 017, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-Sang Lam & Nelson Mark, 1998. "Asset Pricing under Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," Working Papers 98-04, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2005. "Measuring interest rates as determined by thrift and productivity," Working Papers 2005-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
M. C. Freeman, I. R. Davidson, 1999. "Estimating the equity premium," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 236-246, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stephen Gordon & Pascal St-Amour, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 1999. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9906, Université Laval - Département d'économique. [Downloadable!]
Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
Andrew B. Abel, 1998. "Risk Premia and Term Premia in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 6683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 1994. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," NBER Working Papers 4720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & Wang, Jiang, 1959-, 1993. "Implementing option pricing models when asset returns are predictable," Working papers 3593-93., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
- Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. " Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Choi, Woon Gyu & Wen, Yi, 2008. "Measuring Interest Rates as Determined by Thrift and Productivity," Working Papers 00-03, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]

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