Bubbles and Market Crashes

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Bubbles and Market Crashes

Author Info

Michael Youssefmir
Bernardo Huberman
Tad Hogg

Abstract

We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset prices away from their fundamental value. This growth makes the system increasingly susceptible to any exogenous shock, thus eventually precipitating a crash. We also present computer experiments which in their aggregate behavior confirm the predictions of the theory.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9409001.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 07 Sep 1994
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9409001

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G - Financial Economics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Van Horne, James C, 1985. " Of Financial Innovations and Excesses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 621-31, July.
Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1991. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Reprints 1512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other versions:
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1988. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 2715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Brock, William A, 1974. "Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 750-77, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," Working papers 544, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 529-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Ruling out divergent speculative bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-362, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Ken Steiglitz & Liadan I. O'Callaghan, . "Microsimulation of Markets and Endogenous Price Bubbles," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 59, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]

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