IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hoo/wpaper/14110.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exiting from Low Interest Rates to Normality: An Historical Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Bordo

    (Rutgers University)

Abstract

This paper examines the Federal Reserve's recent policy of quantitative easing by looking back at the experience of the 1930s and 1940s when the Fed, under Treasury control, kept interest rates at levels comparable to today and its balance sheet increased similarly. The paper also presents macroeconomic evidence based on the labor market, the growth of the money supply, and the behavior of real GDP and the unemployment rate in addition to a comparison of the Federal funds rate with the Taylor Rule rate and the shadow funds rate. Because of issues connected to its large balance sheet, the Fed may use tools other than the federal funds rate to tighten monetary policy. Returning to a higher (more normal) rate environment will remove some of the distortions that have accompanied the long period of abnormally low interest rates. But rising rates will also present problems for public finance and for the distribution of income that all but guarantees political rancor in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo, 2014. "Exiting from Low Interest Rates to Normality: An Historical Perspective," Economics Working Papers 14110, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:14110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_exiting_from_low_interest_rates_to_normality_-_an_historical_perspective.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John B. Taylor, 2012. "Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn’t: A Tale of Two Eras," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1017-1032, September.
    2. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-124, March.
    4. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Robert W. Fogel, 2005. "Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 1-2.
    6. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2013. "The Missing Transmission Mechanism in the Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 66-72, May.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    9. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    10. Johannes Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2012. "Estimated Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 1-42, June.
    11. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    13. Tim R. Birkhead, 2014. "Reflections," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 25(2), pages 239-241.
    14. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2010. "Exits from Recessions: The U.S. Experience 1920-2007," NBER Working Papers 15731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Stephanie Schmitt‐Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2009. "Liquidity traps with global Taylor Rules," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 85-106, March.
    16. Marvin Goodfriend, 2012. "The Elusive Promise of Independent Central Banking," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 30, pages 39-54, November.
    17. Robert W. Fogel, 2005. "Reconsidering Expectations Of Economic Growth After," NBER Working Papers 11125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Goodfriend, Marvin, 2014. "Lessons from a century of FED policy: Why monetary and credit policies need rules and boundaries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 112-120.
    19. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133, Decembrie.
    20. Cochrane, John H., 2014. "Monetary policy with interest on reserves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-108.
    21. Peter F. Basile & John Landon-Lane & Hugh Rockoff, 2010. "Money and Interest Rates in the United States during the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 16204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    23. Karl Brunner & Allan H. Meltzer, 1968. "Liquidity Traps for Money, Bank Credit, and Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 1-1.
    24. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    25. Vincent R. Reinhart, 2013. "No Way Out: Persistent Government Interventions in the Great Contraction," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 11452, September.
    26. Bordo,Michael D. & Roberds,William (ed.), 2013. "The Origins, History, and Future of the Federal Reserve," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107013728.
    27. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Sergio Cesaratto, 2022. "Le frontiere della politica monetaria: aspetti didattici, teorici, di politica economica. Un review article (The frontiers of monetary policy: didactic, theoretical, economic policy aspects. A review ," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 75(299), pages 353-373.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2014. "The Federal Reserve's Role: Actions Before, During, and After the 2008 Panic the Historical Context of the Great Contraction," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 6, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    3. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-34.
    4. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    5. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    6. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Wang, Ling, 2019. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy on MBS spreads: A comparative study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 235-251.
    8. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    9. Le Riche, Antoine & Magris, Francesco & Parent, Antoine, 2017. "Liquidity Trap and stability of Taylor rules," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-27.
    10. Otmar Issing, 2013. "A New Paradigm for Monetary Policy?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 273-288, June.
    11. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    12. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 181-209, June.
    13. Falagiarda, Matteo, 2013. "Evaluating Quantitative Easing: A DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 49457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gabriel A. Giménez Roche, 2016. "Entrepreneurial ignition of the business cycle: The corporate finance of malinvestment," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 253-276, September.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Imran Shah & Francesca Schmidt-Fischer & Issam Malki, 2018. "The portfolio balance channel: an analysis on the impact of quantitative easing on the US stock market," Department of Economics Working Papers 74/18, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2020. "Characterizing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules and Interactions when Commodity Prices Matter," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(3), pages 373-404, June.
    19. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Monnet, Eric & Degorce, Victor, 2020. "The Great Depression as a Saving Glut," CEPR Discussion Papers 15287, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:14110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hostaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.