Exits from Recessions: The U.S. Experience 1920-2007
AbstractIn this paper we provide some evidence on when central banks have shifted from expansionary to contractionary monetary policy after a recession has ended—the exit strategy. We examine the relationship between the timing of changes in several instruments of monetary policy and the timing of changes of selected real macro aggregates and price level (inflation) variables across U.S. business cycles from 1920-2007. We find, based on historical narratives, descriptive evidence and econometric analysis, that in the 1920s and the 1950s the Fed would generally tighten when the price level turned up. By contrast, since 1960 the Fed has generally tightened when unemployment peaked and this tightening often occurred after inflation began to rise. The Fed is often too late to prevent inflation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15731.
Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-02-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-HIS-2010-02-20 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2010-02-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-02-20 (Monetary Economics)
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- Hatton, Timothy J. & Thomas, Mark, 2010.
"Labour Markets in the Interwar Period and Economic Recovery in the UK and the USA,"
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
7983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2010. "Labour markets in the interwar period and economic recovery in the UK and the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, Autumn.
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