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Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004

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  • Robert W. Fogel

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

At the close of World War II, the future of economic development was the subject of wide-ranging debates. Historical experience has since shown that these forecasts were uniformly too pessimistic. Expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation, which continued to be debated throughout the post-war period. Concerns raised during the late 1960s and early 1970s about rapid population growth smothering the potential for economic growth in developing countries were contradicted when, during the mid- and late-1970s, fertility rates began to decline rapidly. Predictions that food production would not keep up with population growth have also been proven wrong: between 1961 and 2000, calories per capita worldwide have increased by 24 percent, despite a doubling of the global population. The high rates of economic growth in East and Southeast Asia were also unforeseen by economists. Copyright 2005, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Fogel, 2005. "Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 1-2.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:52:y:2005:i:si:p:2
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities For Our Grandchildren?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Michael D. Bordo, 2014. "Exiting from Low Interest Rates to Normality: An Historical Perspective," Economics Working Papers 14110, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    3. Geoffrey J. Warren, 2008. "Implications for Asset Pricing Puzzles of a Roll‐over Assumption for the Risk‐Free Asset," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 8(3‐4), pages 125-157, September.
    4. Moshe Syrquin, 2012. "Changes in the Economic Structure of the World Economy," ICER Working Papers 03-2012, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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