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An Empirical Analysis of Current Account Determinants in Emerging Asian Economies

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  • Yang, Lucun

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

Limited empirical work has been done to the diverging current account balances of the individual emerging Asian economies. Based on the intertemporal approach to current account, this paper empirically examines both the long-run and short-run impacts of initial stock of net foreign assets, degree of openness to international trade, real exchange rate and relative income on current account balances for eight selected emerging Asian economies over the period 1980-2009, making use of the cointegrated VAR (Vector Autoregression) methodology. This paper finds that current account behaviours in emerging Asian economies are heterogeneous. Initial stock of net foreign assets and degree of openness to international trade are important factors in explaining the long-run behaviour of current accounts. Moreover, the current accounts of all sample economies have a self-adjusting mechanism except China. Short-run current account adjustment towards long-run equilibrium path is gradual, with the disequilibrium term being the main determinant of the short-run current account variations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2011/10.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2011/10

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Keywords: Current account; Emerging Asia; Structural and macroeconomic determinants; Saving-investment balance; Cointegration;

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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account," UCLA Economics Working Papers 437, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Faini, Riccardo, 1994. "Export supply, capacity and relative prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 81-100, October.
  3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
  4. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 479-498, 08.
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Herrera, Ana Maria & Hamilton, James D., 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4qp0p0v5, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  7. Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2007. "Short- and medium-term determinants of current account balances in Middle East and North Africa countries," MPRA Paper 1974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 51, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Michał Brzozowski & Sadananda Prusty, 2013. "Impact of GDP volatility on current account balances," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 239-252.

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