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Current Account Determinants For Oil-Exporting Countries

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  • Hanan Morsy

    ()
    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Abstract

The paper aims at characterizing the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Previous studies included a very limited number of oil-exporting countries in their samples, raising concerns about the applicability of the estimated coefficients for oil countries. Furthermore, current approaches are not specifically tailored to oil-producing countries because they fail to capture the effects of oil wealth and the degree of maturity in oil production. This paper explores the underlying determinants of the current account balance for a large sample of oil exporting countries, and extends the specifications commonly used in the literature to include an oil wealth variable, as well as a proxy for the degree of maturity in oil production. The paper therefore contributes to the existing literature both in terms of the sample studied as well as the variables considered. The results reveal that factors that matter in determining the equilibrium current account balance of oil-exporting counties are the fiscal balance, the oil balance, oil wealth, age dependency, and the degree of maturity in oil production.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 511.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision: Mar 2010
Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:511

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  1. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 3153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "An empirical macroeconomic model for policy design : the case of Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 709, The World Bank.
  4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
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  6. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2398, The World Bank.
  7. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 96/58, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  11. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  12. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Africa: Stylized Facts and Basic Determinants," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 191-221.
  13. Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 07/296, International Monetary Fund.
  14. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Dramane Coulibaly & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current Accounts and Oil Price Fluctuations in Oil-Exporting Countries: the Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 2013-19, CEPII research center.
  2. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Working Papers 09/281, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Philipp Harms & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2011. "An FDI is an FDI is an FDI? The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions in developing countries," Working Papers 11.10, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  4. Natalya Ketenci, 2010. "Major Determinants of Current Account in Russia," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 790-806, December.
  5. Robert C. York & Misa Takebe, 2011. "External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/207, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2012. "Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Economies: Lessons from Chile and Norway," Documentos de Trabajo 416, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  7. Philipp an de Meulen, 2011. "Labor Heterogeneity and the Risk of Expropriation in Less Developed Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0298, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  8. Syed tehseen, jawaid & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Dynamics of Current Account Deficit: A Lesson from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 38999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Danica Unevska Andonova & Branimir Jovanovic, 2011. "Sustainability of the Macedonian Current Account," Working Papers 2011-06, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
  10. Harms, Philipp & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2013. "Demographic structure and the security of property rights: The role of development and democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 73-89.
  11. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.

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