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Growth, Saving, Financial Markets, and Markov Switching Regimes

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  • Jacobson Tor

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Lindh Thomas

    (Uppsala University)

  • Warne Anders

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

We report evidence that the relation between the financial-sector share, private saving, and growth in the United States in 1948-96 is characterized by several regime shifts. The finding is based on vector autoregressions on quarterly data that allow for Markov switching regimes. The evidence may be interpreted as support for a hypothesis that the relation between financial development and growth evolves in a stepwise fashion. Theoretical models in which structural financial developments entail fixed costs imply such stepwise patterns. The estimated variable relations are roughly consistent with the patterns to be expected from such models, although our data do not admit definite conclusions. The timing of the shifts coincides with changes in regulation and in the financial-market structure.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (January)
Pages: 1-20

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:5:y:2002:i:4:n:1

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  1. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2013. "The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 271-282.
  2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2007. "A sneeze in the U.S., a cough in Japan, but pneumonia in Taiwan? An application of the Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-14, January.
  3. Thomas Lindh, 2000. "Short-Run Costs of Financial Market Development in Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 221-239, Spring.
  4. Andersson, Björn, 1999. "On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1999:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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