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Sectoral shocks and business cycles: a disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the UK

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Abstract

In this paper we first show that it is possible to modify linear real business cycle models to allow for disaggregate (industry-specific) factors in the generation of macroeconomic fluctuations. We then try to determine the relative importance of aggregate and sectoral shocks by doing principal components analysis on the residuals from a VAR of output growth rates in 19 UK industrial sectors. We find that a significant percentage of the innovations in sectoral output growths can be accounted for by a single unobserved component. However, since the model only sets an upper bound to the explanatory power of aggregate impulses, the importance of using sectoral data to extract additional information to bear on the analysis of economic fluctuations is confirmed by our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 1997. "Sectoral shocks and business cycles: a disaggregated analysis of output fluctuations in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1477-1482.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:11:p:1477-1482
    DOI: 10.1080/000368497326309
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    1. Davis, Steven J., 1987. "Fluctuations in the pace of labor reallocation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 335-402, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2009. "Analyzing and forecasting business cycles in a small open economy: A dynamic factor model for Singapore," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2009(1), pages 19-41.
    2. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Sectoral Shocks in Germany, The U.K. and, The U.S. A VAR-GARCH-M Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 65-85, February.

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