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Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs aggregate shocks

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  • Prakash Loungani
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

We include a stock market-based measure of sectoral shocks in a small VAR to examine the role played by these shocks in explaining the behavior of the unemployment rate. Sectoral shocks explain a significant proportion of the variation in the unemployment rate - especially the long-duration unemployment rate - even though other kinds of shocks (such as shocks to monetary policy, defense expenditures, and oil prices) are allowed to affect the unemployment rate. A historical decomposition reveals that recession, and they explain only a modest part of the rise in unemployment over the 1990 recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 3-15

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1997:p:3-15:n:1

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Keywords: Vector autoregression ; Unemployment ; Labor supply;

References

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  1. Toledo, Wilfredo & Marquis, Milton H, 1993. "Capital Allocative Disturbances and Economic Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 233-40, May.
  2. Brainard, S Lael & Cutler, David M, 1993. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 219-43, February.
  3. Abraham, Katharine G. & Katz, Lawrence F., 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Scholarly Articles 3442781, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Cochrane, John H., 1994. "Shocks," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 295-364, December.
  6. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "Macroeconomic effects of employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. George L. Perry & Charles L. Schultze, 1993. "Was This Recession Different? Are They All Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 145-212.
  9. Robert G. Valletta, 1996. "Has job security in the U.S. declined?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb16.
  10. Davis, Steven J., 1987. "Fluctuations in the pace of labor reallocation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 335-402, January.
  11. Thomas, Jonathan M, 1996. "An Empirical Model of Sectoral Movements by Unemployed Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 126-53, January.
  12. Loungani, Prakash, 1986. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 536-39, August.
  13. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  14. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jinzhu Chen & Bharat Trehan & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani, 2011. "New Evidence on Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment," IMF Working Papers 11/106, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey," Working Paper Series 37_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Scott Schuh & Robert K Triest, 1998. "Job Reallocation And The Business Cycle: New Facts An Old Debate," Working Papers 98-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2000. "Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 136(IV), pages 531-555, December.
  5. Andrew Figura, 2003. "The effect of restructuring on unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. John Freebairn & Peter Dawkins, 2003. "Unemployment Policy: Lessons from Economic Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  7. Hesna Genay & Prakash Loungani, 1997. "Labor market fluctuations in Japan and the U.S.--how similar are they?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 15-28.
  8. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper Series 27-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.

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