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Persistence of Shocks and Their

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  • Lee, Kevin C
  • Pesaran, M Hashem
  • Pierse, Richard G

Abstract

This paper develops a multisectoral framework for the measurement of persistence of shocks to sectoral and aggregate output, and provides a decomposition of the contribution of shocks from different sources to the overall persistence measure. The framework is applied to U.K. output data, distinguishing four types of macroeconomic shocks: innovations in money supply growth, stock returns, exchange rates, and oil prices. Among the macro shocks, exchange-rate shocks have the largest persistence effects on aggregate output, through their effects on manufacturing sectors. The contribution of the identified macro shocks to total persistence was small, however, compared to that of sector-specific shocks. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 102 (1992)
Issue (Month): 411 (March)
Pages: 342-56

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:102:y:1992:i:411:p:342-56

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Cited by:
  1. Fielding, David & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed M. Khalid, 2005. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition," International Finance 0504001, EconWPA.
  3. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2003. "A nation divided? Price and output dynamics in English regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 651-677, May.
  4. Massimo Antonini & Kevin Lee & Jacinta Pires, . "Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in Ten EU Countries," Discussion Papers 11/08, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  5. Gibbens, R. & Mason, R. & Steinberg, R., 1998. "Multiproduct competition between congestible networks," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9816, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  6. Halonen, M. & Williams, I., 1997. "Incomplete contracts, vertical integration and product market competition," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9716, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  7. Ulph, A. & Ulph, D., 1994. "Trade, strategic innovation and strategic environmental policy: a general analysis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9416, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  8. Qizilbash, M., 1995. "Egalitarian justice, capability and well-being prospects," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9516, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  9. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
  10. Driffill, J. & Sola, M., 1992. "Testing the present value hypothesis from a vector autoregression with stochastic regime switching," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9216, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 1997. "Common features and output fluctuations in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January.
  12. Lee, Kevin, 1997. "Modelling economic growth in the UK: An econometric case for disaggregated sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 369-394, July.
  13. Fairburn, J.A. & Malcomson, J.M., 1993. "Rewarding performance by promotion to a different job," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9316, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  14. Jean-Pierre Rouy, 1997. "Sources et impacts à long terme des chocs dans l'industrie manufacturière : une analyse au niveau désagrégé," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 131(5), pages 131-144.
  15. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, . "Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/7, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  16. Jee, Hui-Siang Brenda & Lau, Evan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali, 2010. "Domestic fuel price and economic sectors in Malaysia: a future of renewable energy?," MPRA Paper 22242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January.
  18. Hoffmann, M., 1999. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and a new measure of international capital mobility," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9916, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  19. Kevin Lee, 1998. "Cross-country interdependencies in growth dynamics: A model of output growth in the G7 economies, 1960–1994," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 367-403, September.

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