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Are US current account deficits unsustainable?: Testing for the private and government intertemporal budget constraints

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  • Matsubayashi, Yoichi

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 17 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 223-237

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:17:y:2005:i:2:p:223-237

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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References

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  1. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Ahmed, S. & Rogers, J.H., 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?," Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics 5-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  3. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  4. Jyh-lin, Wu & Fountas, Stilianos & Show-lin, Chen, 1996. "Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 193-198, August.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  6. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
  7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  8. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-66, February.
  9. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2003. "Some international evidence on the stability of aggregate import demand function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1497-1504.
  10. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  11. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  13. David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  15. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  16. Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October.
  17. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  18. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2001. "The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 227-241.
  19. Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1987. "Ricardian Consumers With Keynesian Propensities," NBER Working Papers 1400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lee, J. & Chinn, M.D., 1998. "The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies," Papers, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences 97-98-17, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  21. Ronald McKinnon, 2001. "The International Dollar Standard and Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics 01013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2013. "Long memory and regime switching properties of current account deficits in the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-87.
  2. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
  3. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
  4. Ogawa, Eiji & Kudo, Takeshi, 2007. "Asymmetric responses of East Asian currencies to the US dollar depreciation for reducing the US current account deficits," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 175-194, February.
  5. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Iwatsubo, 2009. "External Adjustments under Increasing Integration: Japanese Perspective," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-050, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  6. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
  7. Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2010. "US external debt sustainability revisited: Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching unit root test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 98-106, March.
  8. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.

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