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Choosing Lag Lengths in Nonlinear Dynamic Models

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Author Info
Heather M. Anderson ()

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Abstract

Given that it is quite impractical to use standard model selection criteria in a nonlinear modeling context, the builders of nonlinear models often choose lag length by setting it equal to the lag length chosen for a linear autoregression of the data. This paper studies the performance of this procedure in a variety of circumstances, and then proposes some new and simple model selection procedures, based on linear approximations of the nonlinear forms. The idea here is to apply standard selection criteria to these linear approximations, rather than to autoregressions that make no provision for nonlinear behavior. A simulation study compares the properties of these proposed procedures with the properties of linear selection procedures.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 21/02.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2002-21

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Related research
Keywords: Nonlinear time series models; Neural networks; Model selection criteria; Polynomial approximations; Volterra expansions.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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  6. Timo TerŠsvirta & Chien-Fu Lin & Clive W.J. Granger, 1991. "Power of the Neural Network Linearity Test," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 91-01, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  7. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Anderson, H.M. & Vahid, F., 2000. "Predicting the Probability of a Recession with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/2000, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. C. W. Granger & E. Maasoumi & J. Racine, 2004. "A Dependence Metric for Possibly Nonlinear Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(5), pages 649-669, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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