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Citations for "Comparing Predictive Accuracy"

by Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S

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  1. Rossi, Alessandro & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "Volatility estimation via hidden Markov models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 203-230, March.
  2. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Accuracy Of General Government Balance Forecasts In Romania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(1), pages 167-178, March.
  3. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2001. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002737, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  5. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Robust tests of predictive accuracy," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 161-184.
  6. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
  7. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224.
  8. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2008. "Forecasting Canadian time series with the New Keynesian model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 138-165, February.
  9. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  10. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  11. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Eterovic, Francisco, 2010. "Can oil prices help estimate commodity futures prices? The cases of copper and silver," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 283-291, December.
  12. Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío & Senra, Eva, 2011. "Forecast combination through dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 224-237, April.
  13. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2009. "The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 963, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Joshua Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Empirical Pricing Kernels," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  15. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00188264 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Ghent, Andra C., 2009. "Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 864-882, April.
  18. Grégory Levieuge & Christophe Blot, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Sciences Po publications 2008-07, Sciences Po.
  19. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 18222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  21. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, 09.
  22. Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Working Paper 1134, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  23. Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania.
  24. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment in US Bond Yields: an Empirical Analysis with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 11571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
  27. Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
  28. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
  30. Rangan Gupta & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Mampho P. Modise & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Can Economic Uncertainty, Financial Stress and Consumer Sentiments Predict U.S. Equity Premium?," Working Papers 201351, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  31. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Elements in the Design of an Early Warning System for Sovereign Default," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 231, Society for Computational Economics.
  32. Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "Log versus level in VAR forecasting: 16 Million empirical answers - expect the unexpected," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 42, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  33. Dick van Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-076/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  34. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2007. "Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24.
  35. Aubry, Mathilde & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2014. "Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-231.
  36. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance," Departmental Working Papers 201309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  37. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
  38. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," OTH im Dialog: Weidener Diskussionspapiere 2, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
  39. Nikola Gradojević & Vladimir Djaković & Goran Andjelić, 2010. "Random Walk Theory and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 303-320, September.
  40. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 09-2010, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  41. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2004. "The performance of SETAR models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 305-320.
  42. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 1-10.
  43. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, EconWPA.
  44. repec:lan:wpaper:3324 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.
  46. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Andrija Mihoci, 2012. "Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High-Frequency Forecasts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  47. António Rua, 2010. "A Wavelet Approach for Factor-Augmented Forecasting," Working Papers w201007, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  48. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adel Bosch & Rangan Gupta & Francois Stofberg, 2013. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand," Working Papers 201304, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  50. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, . "A new index of financial conditions," Working Papers 2013_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  51. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Narayan & Stephan Popp & Badri Rath, 2011. "The productivity-wage and productivity-employment nexus: a panel data analysis of Indian manufacturing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 285-303, April.
  52. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2005. "Land Inequality and the Origin of Divergence and Overtaking in the Growth Process: Theory and Evidence," 2005 Meeting Papers 24, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  53. MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
  54. Bazdresch, Santiago & Werner, Alejandro, 2005. "Regime switching models for the Mexican peso," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 185-201, January.
  55. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  56. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  57. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
  58. Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2004. "Determinants of Agricultural Output: Degree Days, Yields and Implications for Climate Change," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19222, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  59. Sabine Stephan, 2007. "A re-assessment of German import demand," IMK Working Paper 08-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  60. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  61. Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2009. "Realising the future: forecasting with high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2009fe02, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  62. Harrison, Richard & Kapetanios, George & Yates, Tony, 2005. "Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 595-607.
  63. Isao Ishida & Virmantas Kvedaras, 2015. "Modeling Autoregressive Processes with Moving-Quantiles-Implied Nonlinearity," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 2-54, January.
  64. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 215-230, August.
  65. Sandeep Mazumder & Ryan Pahl, 2013. "What if the UK had Joined the Euro in 1999?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 447-470, July.
  66. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  67. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, . "Expectativas de Actividad Económica en Colombia y Estructura a Plazo: Un Poco más de Evidencia," Borradores de Economia 302, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  68. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2012. "Efficient evaluation of multidimensional time-varying density forecasts, with applications to risk management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 343-352.
  69. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013. "Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 21-33.
  70. Lei Lei Song, 2003. "The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n29, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  71. Damásio, Bruno & Nicolau, João, 2014. "Combining a regression model with a multivariate Markov chain in a forecasting problem," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 108-113.
  72. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Some Variables are More Worthy Than Others: New Diffusion Index Evidence on the Monitoring of Key Economic Indicators," Departmental Working Papers 201115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  73. Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2009. "A No Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Analysis Of The Range Based Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2009-31, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  74. Ruthira Naraidoo & Ivan Paya, 2010. "Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa," Working Papers 189, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  75. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
  76. Banu Simmons-Süer, 2013. "Forecasting High-Yield Bond Spreads Using the Loan Market as Leading Indicator," KOF Working papers 13-328, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  77. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2011. "Asymmetry and Long Memory in Volatility Modelling," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-29, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  78. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
  79. Peter Fuleky & Carl, 2013. "Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends," Working Papers 2013-5, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  80. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  81. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  82. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "The Monetary Model Strikes Back; Evidence From the World," IMF Working Papers 08/73, International Monetary Fund.
  83. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating density forecasts," Working Papers 97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  84. Sartaj Rasool Rather & Sunil Paul & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2015. "Inflation Forecasting and the Distribution of Price Changes," Working Papers 2015-099, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  85. Malik, Farooq & Nasereddin, Mahdi, 2006. "Forecasting output using oil prices: A cascaded artificial neural network approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 168-180.
  86. Wayne E. Ferson & Suresh K. Nallareddy & Biqin Xie, 2012. "The "Out of Sample" Performance of Long-run Risk Models," NBER Working Papers 17848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  87. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F Engle, 2000. "The ACD Model: Predictability of the Time Between Concecutive Trades," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-05, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  88. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00275769 is not listed on IDEAS
  89. Wong, Woon K. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Market imperfections and the information content of implied and realized volatility," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-79, January.
  90. Susan Thorp & George Milunovich, 2005. "Asymmetric Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Research Paper Series 160, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  91. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
  92. Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
  93. repec:lan:wpaper:2587 is not listed on IDEAS
  94. Feng Zhao & Robert Jarrow & Haitao Li, 2004. "Interest Rate Caps Smile Too! But Can the LIBOR Market Models Capture It?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 431, Econometric Society.
  95. Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation in Mexico Using Factor Models: Do Disaggregated CPI Data Improve Forecast Accuracy?," Working Papers 2010-01, Banco de México.
  96. Jesús Ferreryra Gugliermino & Rafael Herrada Vargas, 2003. "Tipo de cambio real y sus fundamentos: estimación del desalineamiento," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 167-206, abril-jun.
  97. J. Baixauli & Susana Alvarez, 2006. "Evaluating effects of excess kurtosis on VaR estimates: Evidence for international stock indices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 27-46, August.
  98. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Does energy consumption by the US electric power sector exhibit long memory behavior?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7512-7518, November.
  99. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  100. Francesco Corielli & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Factor Based Index Trading," Working Papers 209, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  101. Naszodi, Anna, 2010. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," Working Paper Series 1200, European Central Bank.
  102. Cerrato, Mario & Sarantis, Nicholas & Saunders, Alex, 2011. "An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1892-1906, August.
  103. Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2012. "Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle," Working Paper 1217, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 01 Feb 2014.
  104. Berardi, Andrea & Torous, Walter, 2002. "Does the term structure forecast," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt4kd201gw, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  105. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2004. "Forecasting the Global Electronics Cycle with Leading Indicators: A VAR Approach," Working Papers 16-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  106. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
  107. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2004. "Predictive Density Accuracy Tests," Working Papers wp04-16, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  108. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2005. "Was leisten Stimmungsindikatoren für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland? : Eine Echtzeit-Analyse," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3725, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  109. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
  110. Audrino, Francesco & Meier, Pirmin, 2012. "Empirical pricing kernel estimation using a functional gradient descent algorithm based on splines," Economics Working Paper Series 1210, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  111. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  112. Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  113. Altavilla, Carlo & Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2013. "Anchoring the Yield Curve Using Survey Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  114. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  115. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 2006. "Long-memory forecasting of US monetary indices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 291-302.
  116. Izquierdo, Segismundo S. & Hernández, Cesáreo & del Hoyo, Juan, 2006. "Forecasting VARMA processes using VAR models and subspace-based state space models," MPRA Paper 4235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  117. Athanasopoulos, George & Ahmed, Roman A. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2009. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-166.
  118. Galli, Fausto, 2014. "Stochastic conditonal range, a latent variable model for financial volatility," MPRA Paper 54841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  119. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  120. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  121. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
  122. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  123. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 1116, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  124. Li, Tong, 2009. "Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 114-123, February.
  125. Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2007. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6407, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  126. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
  127. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," IAB Discussion Paper 201317, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  128. M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2008. "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," CESifo Working Paper Series 2293, CESifo Group Munich.
  129. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open economy DSGE-VAR forecasting and policy analysis - head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  130. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
  131. Nour Meddahi & Éric Renault, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-22, CIRANO.
  132. Kanas, Angelos & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 181-201.
  133. Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 585, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  134. Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1165-1181, November.
  135. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
  136. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2012. "Markov switching and exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 353-365.
  137. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2005. "A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock," Economics Working Papers 898, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  138. Bharat Trehan, 2015. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 207-222, 02.
  139. Harris, Richard D.F. & Stoja, Evarist & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2011. "A cyclical model of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3055-3064, November.
  140. Wilmer Osvaldo Martínez-Rivera & Manuel Dario Hernández-Bejarano & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2014. "On Forecast Evaluation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011604, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  141. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
  142. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2010. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," MPRA Paper 34104, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2011.
  143. Daniel Leigh & Marco Rossi, 2002. "Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/231, International Monetary Fund.
  144. Helmut Luetkepohl & Fang Xu, 2009. "The Role of the Log Transformation in Forecasting Economic Variables," CESifo Working Paper Series 2591, CESifo Group Munich.
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  342. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
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  351. Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
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  367. Burak Saltoglu, 2003. "Comparing forecasting ability of parametric and non-parametric methods: an application with Canadian monthly interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 169-176.
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  832. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  833. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2007. "A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 187-201, February.
  834. Duarte, Claudia & Rua, Antonio, 2007. "Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 941-953, November.
  835. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Kerry Patterson & Fabio Rumler, 2014. "The Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2014-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  836. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  837. Claus, Edda & Lucey, Brian M., 2012. "Equity market integration in the Asia Pacific region: Evidence from discount factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 137-163.
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  840. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Prices in the Euro Area?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 223(5), pages 581-602, September.
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  846. Dreger, Christian & Schumacher, Christian, 2002. "Estimating large-scale factor models for economic activity in Germany : do they outperform simpler models?," HWWA Discussion Papers 199, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  847. Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2013. "The ins and outs of forecasting unemployment: Using labor force flows to forecast the labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  848. Krenar Avdulaj & Jozef Barunik, 2013. "Can we still benefit from international diversification? The case of the Czech and German stock markets," Papers 1308.6120, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
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  850. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
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  852. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0901, European Central Bank.
  853. Mancino Maria Elvira & Simona Sanfelici, 2009. "Covariance estimation and dynamic asset allocation under microstructure effects via Fourier methodology," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2009-09, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  854. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
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  857. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Kapetanios, George, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation," Working Paper Series 0402, European Central Bank.
  858. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg, 2007. "Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 349-374, July.
  859. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  860. Bušs, Ginters, 2009. "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper 16684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  861. Gargano, Antonio & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  862. Ariful Hoque & Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti, 2012. "Modeling moneyness volatility in measuring exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 365-380.
  863. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Working Papers 201346, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  864. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  865. Paolo Surico, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Macroeconomics 0210002, EconWPA, revised 09 Dec 2003.
  866. Koopman, Siem Jan & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 676-694.
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  868. Amélie Charles, 2008. "Forecasting volatility with outliers in GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 551-565.
  869. Egorov, Alexei V. & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haitao, 2006. "Validating forecasts of the joint probability density of bond yields: Can affine models beat random walk?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 255-284.
  870. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  872. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham, 2011. "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers 201110, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
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  877. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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  880. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Fabián Gredig U. & Mauricio Larraín E., 2008. "The output Gap in chile: Measurement and Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 7-30, August.
  881. D'Amuri, Francesco/FD & Marcucci, Juri/JM, 2009. ""Google it!" Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index," MPRA Paper 18248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  883. André Güttler & Walter Kraemer, 2008. "On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 2202, CESifo Group Munich.
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  895. Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2015. "Forecasting excess stock returns with crude oil market data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 316-324.
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  900. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
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  910. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
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  915. Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
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  922. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2006. "An Asymmetric Block Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 189, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006.
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  1001. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
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  1003. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, . "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  1005. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2009. "Exploiting price misalignements," MPRA Paper 27147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  1009. Geert Mesters & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "A Forty Year Assessment of Forecasting the Boat Race," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-110/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  1010. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  1011. Francisco Javier Eransus & Alfonso Novales Cinca, 2014. "Parameter Estimation Error in Tests of Predictive Performance under Discrete Loss Functions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-22, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  1012. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92 Bank for International Settlements.
  1013. Lanne Markku & Saikkonen Pentti, 2011. "Noncausal Autoregressions for Economic Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-32, October.
  1014. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2009. "Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 7343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  1015. Tae-Hwy Lee & Weiping Yang, 2014. "Money-Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles," Working Papers 201423, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  1016. Benavides, Guillermo & Capistrán, Carlos, 2012. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: The superior performance of conditional combinations of time series and option implied forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 627-639.
  1017. Stéphane Yen & Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2010. "Open interest, volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 113-141, April.
  1018. Constantino Hevia & Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," BCAM Working Papers 1403, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  1019. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," CAMA Working Papers 2015-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  1020. Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Short term inflation forecasting: the M.E.T.A. approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1016, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  1021. Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
  1022. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
  1023. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
  1024. Troy Matheson, 2007. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: the importance of business opinion surveys," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  1025. Sergi Jiménez-Mart�n & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2006. "A sequential model of older workers' labor force transitions after a health shock," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 1033-1054.
  1026. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  1027. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 231-252, June.
  1028. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA.
  1029. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Javier Arroyo & Carlos Mate & A. Munoz San Roque, 2011. "Smoothing Methods for Histogram-valued Time Series. An Application to Value-at-Risk," Working Papers 201433, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  1030. Tian, Jing & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 161-175.
  1031. V. L. Martin & G. M. Martin & G. C. Lim, 2005. "Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 377-404.
  1032. Guy Chapda Nana & Bruno Larue, 2014. "Imposing curvature conditions on flexible functional forms for GNP functions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1411-1440, December.
  1033. Stavros Degiannakis, 2004. "Volatility forecasting: evidence from a fractional integrated asymmetric power ARCH skewed-t model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1333-1342.
  1034. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chang, Yung-Ho & Marcucci, Juri, 2008. "Is the Swedish stock market efficient? Evidence from some simple trading rules," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 475-490, June.
  1035. Leal Linares, Teresa & Pérez García, Javier J., 2011. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 909 (14 pág, Diciembre.
  1036. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Saltoglu, Burak, 2002. "Assessing the risk forecasts for Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 63-85, January.
  1037. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  1038. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working papers 2012-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  1039. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
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  1041. Taylor, Nicholas, 2008. "Can idiosyncratic volatility help forecast stock market volatility?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 462-479.
  1042. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  1043. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
  1044. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  1045. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Lee, Ming-Chih & Liu, Hung-Chun, 2008. "Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1173-1191, May.
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  1048. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
  1049. Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T. K. Wan, 2009. "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," Working Papers 032009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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  1060. Francis Vitek, 2005. "An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," Macroeconomics 0512019, EconWPA, revised 04 Feb 2006.
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  1062. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 08-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  1063. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  1064. Murat, Atilim & Tokat, Ekin, 2009. "Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-90, January.
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  1066. Ubilava, David & Helmers, C Gustav, 2012. "Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model," MPRA Paper 36890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  1067. Giovanni De Luca & Alfonso Carfora, 2014. "Predicting U.S. recessions through a combination of probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 127-144, February.
  1068. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar, 2013. "Forecasting Aggregate Retail Sales: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201312, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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  1072. Francisco Craveiro Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2014. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  1073. Rómulo Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 260, Central Bank of Chile.
  1074. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2012. "Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 456-476.
  1075. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2006. "Regime switching and artificial neural network forecasting of the Cyprus Stock Exchange daily returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 371-383.
  1076. Guillermo Benavides, 2006. "Volatility Forecasts for the Mexican Peso - U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis of Garch, Option Implied and Composite Forecast Models," Working Papers 2006-04, Banco de México.
  1077. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
  1078. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Quantile Forecasts of Daily Exchange Rate Returns from Forecasts of Realized Volatility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 777, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  1079. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Francesco Ravazzolo & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different," Working Paper 2015/05, Norges Bank.
  1080. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
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  1084. Dovern, Jonas & Huber, Florian, 2015. "Global Prediction of Recessions," Working Papers 0585, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  1085. Nelson Areal & Artur Rodrigues & Manuel Armada, 2008. "On improving the least squares Monte Carlo option valuation method," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 119-151, March.
  1086. Gustavo A. Marrero, 2004. "Component versus Tradicional Models to Forecast Quarterly National Account Aggregates: a Monte Carlo Experiment," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0410, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
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  1088. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.
  1089. Panday, Anjan, 2015. "Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-71.
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  1093. Lennart F. Hoogerheide & David Ardia & Nienke Corre, 2011. "Stock Index Returns' Density Prediction using GARCH Models: Frequentist or Bayesian Estimation?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-020/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  1094. Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  1095. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.
  1096. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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  1100. Bonham, Carl & Gangnes, Byron & Zhou, Ting, 2009. "Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 531-549, July.
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  1102. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
  1103. Sessi Tokpavi, 2013. "Testing for the Systemically Important Financial Institutions: a Conditional Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-27, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
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  1122. Andrés Sagner, 2011. "El Índice Cartera Vencida como Medida de Riesgo de Crédito: Análisis y Aplicación al Caso de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 618, Central Bank of Chile.
  1123. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  1124. Tommaso Proietti, 2014. "Exponential Smoothing, Long Memory and Volatility Prediction," CEIS Research Paper 319, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Jul 2014.
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  1126. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Mit Zeitungen Konjunkturprognosen erstellen: Eine Vergleichsstudie für die Schweiz und Deutschland," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(3), pages 104-117, September.
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  1129. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2008. "La brecha de producto en Chile: medición y evaluación," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 69-102 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
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  1142. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  1150. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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  1156. Silvia Muzzioli, 2013. "The Optimal Corridor for Implied Volatility: from Calm to Turmoil Periods," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0029, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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  1158. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2011. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 8503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  1161. Michele Lenza & Thomas Warmedinger, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
  1162. Sabine Stephan, 2006. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882, November.
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  1164. Clements, M.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Smith, J., 1999. "On SETAR non- linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9914-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  1165. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275.
  1166. Lade, Gabriel & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Policy Uncertainty under Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170673, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  1167. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Determinants: Time-Varying Transitional Dynamics," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-114, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
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  1169. Atak, Alev & Kapetanios, George, 2013. "A factor approach to realized volatility forecasting in the presence of finite jumps and cross-sectional correlation in pricing errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 224-228.
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  1173. Moura, Marcelo L. , & Lima, Adauto R. S. & Mendonça, Rodrigo M., 2008. "Exchange Rate and Fundamentals: The Case of Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_114, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
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  1195. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
  1196. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  1212. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
  1213. Hyun Hak Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Mining Big Data Using Parsimonious Factor and Shrinkage Methods," Departmental Working Papers 201316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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  1224. Cabrero, Alberto & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Hirsch, Astrid & Nieto, Fernando, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 0142, European Central Bank.
  1225. Bruér, Mattias, 2002. "Can Demography Improve Inflation Forecasts? The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2002:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  1226. Juan Carlos Pérez-Velasco Pavón, 2009. "Determinantes de la demanda por la denominación promedio de billete: el caso de México," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 523-548, octubre-d.
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  1234. Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers 420, Bank for International Settlements.
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  1241. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  1242. Christina Strobach & Carin van der Cruijsen, 2015. "The formation of European inflation expectations: One learning rule does not fit all," DNB Working Papers 472, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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  1245. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
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  1249. Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, 2007. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: Forecasting Using Several Seasonal Time Series Models," Faculty Working Papers 02/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  1250. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
  1251. Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2012. "Intraday technical analysis of individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3033-3047.
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  1253. Martens, M.P.E. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2006. "Measuring volatility with the realized range," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  1254. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
  1255. Linlin Niu & Xiu Xu & Ying Chen, 2015. "An Adaptive Approach to Forecasting Three Key Macroeconomic Variables for Transitional China," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  1261. Christophe BLOT & Grégory LEVIEUGE, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Countries Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Working Papers 244, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
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  1272. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  1273. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
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  1275. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "An Unbiased and Powerful Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2001-06, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  1276. Qi, Min & Yang, Sha, 2003. "Forecasting consumer credit card adoption: what can we learn about the utility function?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-85.
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  1278. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2009. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  1279. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2001. "Controlling Inflation in Euroland," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20102, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  1280. Brabec, Marek & Konár, Ondrej & Pelikán, Emil & Malý, Marek, 2008. "A nonlinear mixed effects model for the prediction of natural gas consumption by individual customers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 659-678.
  1281. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Does data frequency matter for the impact of forward premium on spot exchange rate?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 45-53.
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  1287. Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
  1288. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, . "A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock," Working Papers 2005-23, FEDEA.
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  1290. Carlos Capistrán, 2007. "Optimality Tests for Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2007-14, Banco de México.
  1291. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  1292. Saša ŽIKOVIÆ & Randall K. FILER, 2013. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(4), pages 327-359, August.
  1293. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  1294. Dick van Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-076/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  1295. Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "Forecasting the density of oil futures," Working Papers 2014-601, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
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  1298. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  1299. Costas Milas & Philip Rothman, 2007. "Out-of-Sample Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," Working Paper Series 49-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  1300. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 177, Econometric Society.
  1301. Todorova, Neda & Souček, Michael, 2014. "The impact of trading volume, number of trades and overnight returns on forecasting the daily realized range," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 332-340.
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  1304. Marco Shinobu Matsumura & Ajax Reynaldo Bello Moreira & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Linear Factor Models," Working Papers Series 223, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  1305. Gabriel Pino & Juan de Dios Tena & Antoni Espasa, 2013. "Forecasting disaggregates by sectors and regions : the case of inflation in the euro area and Spain," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws130807, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  1306. Leonidas Tsiaras, 2010. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," CREATES Research Papers 2010-34, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  1307. Sermpinis, Georgios & Theofilatos, Konstantinos & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Georgopoulos, Efstratios F. & Dunis, Christian, 2013. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial-basis functions and Particle Swarm Optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(3), pages 528-540.
  1308. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0718, Banco de Espa�a.
  1309. Ane, Thierry, 2006. "An analysis of the flexibility of Asymmetric Power GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1293-1311, November.
  1310. Ruthira Naraidoo & Ivan Paya, 2010. "Forecasting Monetary Rules in South Africa," Working Papers 201007, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  1311. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  1312. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
  1313. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés Díaz & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explicación y predicción de la inflación en mercados emergentes: el caso de México," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 129-165, abril-jun.
  1314. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
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  1316. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
  1317. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "How Sticky Is Sticky Enough? A Distributional and Impulse Response Analysis of New Keynesian DSGE Models. Extended Working Paper Version," Departmental Working Papers 200612, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  1318. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  1319. Chortareas, Georgios & Jiang, Ying & Nankervis, John. C., 2011. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1089-1107, October.
  1320. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  1321. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "Estimation of Keynesian Exchange Rate Model of Pakistan by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," MPRA Paper 52611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  1322. PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2005. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2005025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  1323. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences (new title: The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences)," CESifo Working Paper Series 1280, CESifo Group Munich.
  1324. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
  1325. Fildes, Robert, 2006. "The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 415-432.
  1326. Ruth, Karsten, 2008. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the EMU: Does disaggregate modeling improve forecast accuracy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 417-429.
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  1330. Zongwu Cai & Jiancheng Jiang and Jingshuang Zhang, 2013. "A New Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Papers 2013-10-14, Working Paper.
  1331. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  1332. Marcelo Moura, 2010. "Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 547-564, September.
  1333. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson, 2005. "Mind your Ps and Qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  1334. Stéphane Guéné, 2001. "Agrégats et politique monétaires dans la zone euro," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 187-201.
  1335. di Mauro, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio & Mannucci, Dario, 2011. "Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity," Working Paper Series 1366, European Central Bank.
  1336. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  1337. Herwartz, Helmut & Golosnoy, Vasyl, 2007. "Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance," Economics Working Papers 2007,23, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  1338. Peter H. Sullivan, 2013. "Finding a Connection Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals, How Should We Model Revisions to Forecasting Strategies?," 2013 Papers psu387, Job Market Papers.
  1339. Helena Veiga, 2006. "Volatility Forecasts: A Continuous Time Model Versus Discrete Time Models1," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws062509, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
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  1342. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1688-1711, December.
  1343. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series 1561, CESifo Group Munich.
  1344. Andrés Schneider, 2009. "Regímenes de flotación administrada: un enfoque de cartera," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 549-584, octubre-d.
  1345. Heij, C. & Groenen, P.J.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2006. "Time series forecasting by principal covariate regression," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  1346. Jozef Baruník, 2008. "How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 358-376, Oktober.
  1347. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  1348. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
  1349. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December.
  1350. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Forecasting Real House Price of the U.S.: An Analysis Covering 1890 to 2012," Working Papers 201362, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  1351. Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008. "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
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  1353. Georgios Chortareas & John Nankervis & Ying Jiang, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility with High Frequency Data: Is the Euro Different?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 79, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  1354. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
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  1357. Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
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  1359. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  1360. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2013. "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9572, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  1361. Castilla, Adolfo, 2015. "Proyecto LINK y Econometría de Alta Frecuencia: Las últimas aportaciones econométricas de Lawrence R. Klein /LINK Project and High Frequency Econometrics: Recent Econometric Contributions of Lawrence ," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 421-450, Mayo.
  1362. Alper, C. Emre & Fendoglu, Salih & Saltoglu, Burak, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatilities Using MIDAS Regressions: An Application to the Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 7460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  1363. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects," NBER Working Papers 13799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  1364. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  1365. Tom Boot & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Optimal forecasts from Markov switching models," DNB Working Papers 452, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  1366. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2001. "The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely," NBER Working Papers 8430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  1367. Bork, Lasse & Møller, Stig V., 2015. "Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 63-78.
  1368. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
  1369. Carlos Capistrán & Gabriel López-Moctezuma, 2008. "Experts´ Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
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  1376. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
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  1378. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  1561. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 135-149.
  1562. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  1563. Kinnunen, Jyri, 2014. "Risk-return trade-off and serial correlation: Do volume and volatility matter?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-19.
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  1565. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2008/05, Latvijas Banka.
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  1569. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
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  1573. Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim & Yaoqi Zhang, 2013. "Revisiting the Empirical Inconsistency of the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Rural China," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  1574. Li, Jing, 2006. "Testing Granger Causality in the presence of threshold effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 771-780.
  1575. Robledo, Carlos W. & Zapata, Hector O. & McCracken, Michael, 2001. "New Mse Tests For Evaluating Forecasting Performance: Empirics And Bootstrap," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20686, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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  1582. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.
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  1660. Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Analyse der Prognoseeigenschaften von ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren unter Echtzeitbedingungen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 227(1), pages 87-101, February.
  1661. Maria Rosa Nieto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws087326, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  1662. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle: A comparative study for Germany and Switzerland," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  1663. Anenberg, Elliot & Laufer, Steven, 2014. "Using Data on Seller Behavior to Forecast Short-run House Price Changes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  1664. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Sergio da Silva, 2012. "An empirical case against the use of genetic-based learning classifier systems as forecasting devices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 354-369.
  1665. Houda Ben Hadj Boubaker, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of Seasonal and Nonlinear Models," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(1), pages 26-39, March.
  1666. Javier Contreras-Reyes & Wilfredo Palma, 2013. "Statistical analysis of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models in R," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 2309-2331, October.
  1667. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
  1668. Branimir Jovanovic & Magdalena Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers 2010-02, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, revised Aug 2010.
  1669. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Middendorf, Torge & Schäfer, Günter & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur im Zwischentief," RWI Konjunkturberichte, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), vol. 59(1), pages 31-82.
  1670. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Forecasting sovereign default using panel models: A comparative analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 228, Society for Computational Economics.
  1671. Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
  1672. Ferreira, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting the comovements of spot interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 766-792, September.
  1673. Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January.
  1674. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
  1675. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
  1676. Hamid Baghestani & Cassia Marchon, 2015. "On the accuracy of private forecasts of inflation and growth in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 370-381, April.
  1677. Pong, Shiuyan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2004. "Forecasting currency volatility: A comparison of implied volatilities and AR(FI)MA models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2541-2563, October.
  1678. Afees A. Salisu & Ismail O. Fasanya, 2012. "Comparative Performance of Volatility Models for Oil Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 167-183.
  1679. Marcela Urrutia A. & Andrea Sánchez Y., 2008. "Generación de Energía Eléctrica en un Modelo para Proyectar el IMACEC," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 99-108, August.
  1680. Bekiros, Stelios, 2014. "Forecasting with a state space time-varying parameter VAR model: Evidence from the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 619-626.
  1681. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  1682. Park, Timothy A. & Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar L., 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19412, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  1683. Stefan Reitz & Jan C. Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
  1684. Qiuqiong Huang & Richard Howitt & Scott Rozelle, 2012. "Estimating production technology for policy analysis: trading off precision and heterogeneity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 219-233, October.
  1685. Nikola Gradojevic & Dragan Kukolj & Ramazan Gencay, 2011. "Clustering and Classification in Option Pricing," Review of Economic Analysis, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, vol. 3(2), pages 109-128, October.
  1686. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2014. "Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 182, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  1687. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  1688. McElroy, Tucker & Wildi, Marc, 2013. "Multi-step-ahead estimation of time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 378-394.
  1689. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  1690. Angela He & Alan Wan, 2009. "Predicting daily highs and lows of exchange rates: a cointegration analysis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1191-1204.
  1691. Lim, G.C. & Martin, G.M. & Martin, V.L., 2006. "Pricing currency options in the presence of time-varying volatility and non-normalities," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-314, July.
  1692. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  1693. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  1694. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & White, Scott I., 2007. "Does implied volatility provide any information beyond that captured in model-based volatility forecasts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2535-2549, August.
  1695. Nikola Gradojevic, 2015. "Multi-criteria Classification for Pricing European Options," Working Paper Series 15-13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  1696. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "Is the Quantity Theory of Money Useful in Forecasting U.S. Inflation?," CREATES Research Papers 2014-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  1697. Bermingham, Colin, 2010. "A critical assessment of existing estimates of US core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 993-1007, December.
  1698. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
  1699. Valeri Voev, 2007. "Dynamic Modeling of Large Dimensional Covariance Matrices," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  1700. Richard A. Ashley & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2013. "Sensitivity Analysis of Inference in GMM Estimation With Possibly-Flawed Moment Conditions," Working Papers e07-40, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  1701. Liu, Dandan & Jansen, Dennis W., 2007. "Macroeconomic forecasting using structural factor analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 655-677.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.