Banking Risk Exposure
In this paper we model banking risk exposure in a non-linear VAR framework. We included banking aggregates such as write-offs, provisions expenses, and total loans. Overall fitting of the model is good for chilean data. In and out sample forecasts are better than a simple ARIMA model. Given this we consider that the model provides a good input for stress testing analysis of Chilean banking system.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2008|
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- Rodrigo Alfaro & Helmut Franken & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara, 2004.
"The Bank Lending Channel in Chile,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,
in: Luis Antonio Ahumada & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking Market Structure and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 4, pages 121-146
Central Bank of Chile.
- Rodrigo Alfaro & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara & Helmut Franken, 2005. "The bank lending channel in Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 128-45 Bank for International Settlements.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlos García & Pablo García & Igal Magendzo & Jorge Restrepo, 2003. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Chile: A Medium-Sized Macroeconometric Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 254, Central Bank of Chile.
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