IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i18p6675-d1242158.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method

Author

Listed:
  • Hasnain Iftikhar

    (Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
    Department of Mathematics, City University of Science and Information Technology Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan)

  • Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro

    (Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Unión, Lima 15468, Peru)

  • Paulo Canas Rodrigues

    (Department of Statistics, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40170-110, Brazil)

  • Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales

    (Vicerrectorado de Investigación, Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener, Lima 15046, Peru)

Abstract

In the present liberalized energy markets, electricity demand forecasting is critical for planning of generation capacity and required resources. An accurate and efficient electricity demand forecast can reduce the risk of power outages and excessive power generation. Avoiding blackouts is crucial for economic growth, and electricity is an essential energy source for industry. Considering these facts, this study presents a detailed analysis of the forecast of hourly electricity demand by comparing novel decomposition methods with several univariate and multivariate time series models. To that end, we use the three proposed decomposition methods to divide the electricity demand time series into the following subseries: a long-run linear trend, a seasonal trend, and a stochastic trend. Next, each subseries is forecast using all conceivable combinations of univariate and multivariate time series models. Finally, the multiple forecasting models are immediately integrated to provide a final one-day-ahead electricity demand forecast. The presented modeling and forecasting technique is implemented for the Nord Pool electricity market’s hourly electricity demand. Three accuracy indicators, a statistical test, and a graphical analysis are used to assess the performance of the proposed decomposition combination forecasting technique. Hence, the forecasting results demonstrate the efficiency and precision of the proposed decomposition combination forecasting technique. In addition, the final best combination model within the proposed forecasting framework is comparatively better than the best models proposed in the literature and standard benchmark models. Finally, we suggest that the decomposition combination forecasting approach developed in this study be employed to handle additional complicated power market forecasting challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasnain Iftikhar & Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-22, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6675-:d:1242158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6675/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6675/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.
    2. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Al-Garni, A.Z. & Al-Nassar, Y.N., 1997. "Modelling and forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using abductive networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 911-921.
    3. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali & Wendong Yang, 2022. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand and Prices: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches," Journal of Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-14, July.
    4. Ramanathan, Ramu & Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive W. J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid & Brace, Casey, 1997. "Shorte-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-174, June.
    5. Hasnain Iftikhar & Nadeela Bibi & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Multiple Novel Decomposition Techniques for Time Series Forecasting: Application to Monthly Forecasting of Electricity Consumption in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Hasnain Iftikhar & Murad Khan & Zardad Khan & Faridoon Khan & Huda M Alshanbari & Zubair Ahmad, 2023. "A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models: A Case Study in Predicting Chronic Kidney Disease," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-13, February.
    7. Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva & Kleyton da Costa & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Rodrigo Salas & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2022. "Statistical and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Electricity Consumption Forecasting in the Brazilian Industrial Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, January.
    8. Taylor, James W., 2010. "Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 139-152, July.
    9. Oscar Trull & Juan Carlos García-Díaz & Alicia Troncoso, 2020. "Initialization Methods for Multiple Seasonal Holt–Winters Forecasting Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Nicole Jeldes & Germán Ibacache-Pulgar & Carolina Marchant & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2022. "Modeling Air Pollution Using Partially Varying Coefficient Models with Heavy Tails," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-24, October.
    11. Lisi, Francesco & Pelagatti, Matteo M., 2018. "Component estimation for electricity market data: Deterministic or stochastic?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 13-37.
    12. Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva & Natalí Carbo-Bustinza & Germán Ibacache-Pulgar & Rodrigo Flora Calili, 2020. "Simulation of the Energy Efficiency Auction Prices via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, September.
    13. Yu Jin & Honggang Guo & Jianzhou Wang & Aiyi Song, 2020. "A Hybrid System Based on LSTM for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-32, November.
    14. Sulandari, Winita & Subanar, & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam & Rodrigues, Paulo Canas, 2020. "Indonesian electricity load forecasting using singular spectrum analysis, fuzzy systems and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    15. Kazemzadeh, Mohammad-Rasool & Amjadian, Ali & Amraee, Turaj, 2020. "A hybrid data mining driven algorithm for long term electric peak load and energy demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    16. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting Medium-Term Electricity Consumption Using Component Estimation Technique," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-17, May.
    17. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    18. Ismail Shah & Faheem Jan & Sajid Ali & Tahir Mehmood, 2022. "Functional Data Approach for Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-14, June.
    19. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    20. Saab, Samer & Badr, Elie & Nasr, George, 2001. "Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption: the case of electricity in Lebanon," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14.
    21. Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh & Michela Longo & Federica Foiadelli & Marco Pasetti & Raul Igual, 2021. "Advances in the Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Power System Analytics: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-24, August.
    22. Bedi, Jatin & Toshniwal, Durga, 2019. "Deep learning framework to forecast electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1312-1326.
    23. Yamin Shen & Yuxuan Ma & Simin Deng & Chiou-Jye Huang & Ping-Huan Kuo, 2021. "An Ensemble Model based on Deep Learning and Data Preprocessing for Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    24. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Al-Garni, A.Z., 1997. "Forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using univariate time-series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1059-1069.
    25. Myoungsoo Kim & Wonik Choi & Youngjun Jeon & Ling Liu, 2019. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Power Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasnain Iftikhar & Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices for the Italian Electricity Market Using a New Decomposition—Combination Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Hasnain Iftikhar & Aimel Zafar & Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Brent Crude Oil Prices Using Hybrid Combinations of Time Series Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Hasnain Iftikhar & Nadeela Bibi & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Multiple Novel Decomposition Techniques for Time Series Forecasting: Application to Monthly Forecasting of Electricity Consumption in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    5. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2019. "Assessing the accuracy of electricity production forecasts in developing countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1175-1185.
    6. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2022. "A new approach to modeling cycles with summer and winter demand peaks as input variables for deep neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    8. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting Medium-Term Electricity Consumption Using Component Estimation Technique," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Incorporating air temperature into mid-term electricity load forecasting models using time-series regressions and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    10. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    11. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    13. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
    14. Salma Hamad Almuhaini & Nahid Sultana, 2023. "Forecasting Long-Term Electricity Consumption in Saudi Arabia Based on Statistical and Machine Learning Algorithms to Enhance Electric Power Supply Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-28, February.
    15. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    16. Zhang, Wenbin & Tian, Lixin & Wang, Minggang & Zhen, Zaili & Fang, Guochang, 2016. "The evolution model of electricity market on the stable development in China and its dynamic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 344-359.
    17. Karodine Chreng & Han Soo Lee & Soklin Tuy, 2022. "A Hybrid Model for Electricity Demand Forecast Using Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Recurrent Neural Networks with ERA5 Climate Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-26, October.
    18. Varma, Rashmi & Sushil,, 2019. "Bridging the electricity demand and supply gap using dynamic modeling in the Indian context," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 515-535.
    19. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    20. Tang, Ling & Yu, Lean & Wang, Shuai & Li, Jianping & Wang, Shouyang, 2012. "A novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm for nuclear energy consumption forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 432-443.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:18:p:6675-:d:1242158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.