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Can We Still Benefit from International Diversification? The Case of the Czech and German Stock Markets

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  • Krenar AVDULAJ

    (Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

  • Jozef BARUNIK

    (Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague)

Abstract

One of the findings of the recent literature is that the 2008 financial crisis caused a reduction in international diversification benefits. To fully understand the potential of diversification, we build an empirical model which combines generalized autoregressive score copula functions with high-frequency data and allows us to capture and forecast the conditional time-varying joint distribution of stock returns. Using this novel methodology and fresh data covering five years after the crisis, we compute the conditional diversification benefits to answer the question of whether it is still interesting for an international investor to diversify. As diversification tools, we consider the Czech PX and the German DAX broad stock indices, and we find that the diversification benefits strongly vary over the 2008–2013 crisis years.

Suggested Citation

  • Krenar AVDULAJ & Jozef BARUNIK, 2013. "Can We Still Benefit from International Diversification? The Case of the Czech and German Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 425-442, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:5:p:425-442
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    Cited by:

    1. Astrid Ayala & Szabolcs Blazsek, 2018. "Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(37), pages 4005-4023, August.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2015. "An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 474-490.
    3. Sekuła Paweł, 2019. "Causality Analysis Between Stock Market Indices," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 74-93, March.
    4. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Aubin, Christian & Goyeau, Daniel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Extreme co-movements and dependencies among major international exchange rates: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 56-69.
    5. Chaker Aloui & Hela BEN HAMIDA, 2015. "Estimation and Performance Assessment of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Based on Long-Memory GARCH-Class Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 30-54, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio diversification; dynamic correlations; high-frequency data; time-varying copulas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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