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Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China

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Listed author(s):
  • Liping Gao
  • Hyeongwoo Kim

Abstract

Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reports indirect evidence for the permanent income hypothesis using time series observations in China. We revisit this issue by addressing direct evidence of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009) as well as the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable.

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File URL: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2014/2014-11.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Auburn University in its series Auburn Economics Working Paper Series with number auwp2014-11.

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Date of creation: Jul 2014
Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2014-11
Contact details of provider: Postal:
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Web page: http://cla.auburn.edu/economics/

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Keywords: Permanent Income Hypothesis; Consumption; Out-of-Sample Predictability; Diebold-Mariano-West Statistic;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
  • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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  1. Shoji, Masahiro & Aoyagi, Keitaro & Kasahara, Ryuji & Sawada, Yasuyuki & Ueyama, Mika, 2012. "Social Capital Formation and Credit Access: Evidence from Sri Lanka," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2522-2536.
  2. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  3. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
  4. Guirkinger, Catherine, 2008. "Understanding the Coexistence of Formal and Informal Credit Markets in Piura, Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1436-1452, August.
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
  6. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
  7. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  9. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  10. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
  11. Chow, Gregory C, 1985. "A Model of Chinese National Income Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 782-792, August.
  12. Yuan, Yan & Xu, Lihe, 2015. "Are poor able to access the informal credit market? Evidence from rural households in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 232-246.
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