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Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China

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  • Liping Gao
  • Hyeongwoo Kim

Abstract

Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reports indirect evidence for the permanent income hypothesis using time series observations in China. We revisit this issue by addressing direct evidence of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009) as well as the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable.

Suggested Citation

  • Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2014. "Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-11, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2014-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shoji, Masahiro & Aoyagi, Keitaro & Kasahara, Ryuji & Sawada, Yasuyuki & Ueyama, Mika, 2012. "Social Capital Formation and Credit Access: Evidence from Sri Lanka," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2522-2536.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Permanent Income Hypothesis; Consumption; Out-of-Sample Predictability; Diebold-Mariano-West Statistic;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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