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Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China

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  • Liping Gao
  • Hyeongwoo Kim

Abstract

Using time series macroeconomic data, Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reported indirect empirical evidence that implies the validity of the permanent income hypothesis in China. We revisit this issue by evaluating direct measures of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009). We also implement and report similar analysis for the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable, which sharply contrasts the implications of empirical findings by Chow (1985, 2010, 2011).

Suggested Citation

  • Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2016. "Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-09, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  • Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2016-09
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    1. Shoji, Masahiro & Aoyagi, Keitaro & Kasahara, Ryuji & Sawada, Yasuyuki & Ueyama, Mika, 2012. "Social Capital Formation and Credit Access: Evidence from Sri Lanka," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2522-2536.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Permanent Income Hypothesis; Consumption; Out-of-Sample Forecast; Diebold-Mariano-West Statistic;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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