IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jed/journl/v41y2016i3p21-30.html

Testing The Predictability Of Consumption Growth: Evidence From China

Author

Listed:
  • LIPING GAO AND HYEONGWOO KIM

    (Georgia Southern University, and Auburn University)

Abstract

Using time series macroeconomic data, Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reported indirect empirical evidence that implies the validity of the permanent income hypothesis in China. We revisit this issue by evaluating direct measures of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009). We also implement and report similar analysis for the postwar U.S. data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable, which sharply contrasts the implications of empirical findings by Chow (1985, 2010, 2011).

Suggested Citation

  • Liping Gao And Hyeongwoo Kim, 2016. "Testing The Predictability Of Consumption Growth: Evidence From China," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 21-30, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:41:y:2016:i:3:p:21-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jed.or.kr/full-text/41-3/2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shoji, Masahiro & Aoyagi, Keitaro & Kasahara, Ryuji & Sawada, Yasuyuki & Ueyama, Mika, 2012. "Social Capital Formation and Credit Access: Evidence from Sri Lanka," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2522-2536.
    2. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    3. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    4. Guirkinger, Catherine, 2008. "Understanding the Coexistence of Formal and Informal Credit Markets in Piura, Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1436-1452, August.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    6. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    7. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    9. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    11. Chow, Gregory C., 2011. "Lessons from studying a simple macroeconomic model for China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 233-235, September.
    12. Chow, Gregory C, 1985. "A Model of Chinese National Income Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 782-792, August.
    13. Yuan, Yan & Xu, Lihe, 2015. "Are poor able to access the informal credit market? Evidence from rural households in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 232-246.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liping Gao & Hyeongwoo Kim & Yaoqi Zhang, 2013. "Revisiting the Empirical Inconsistency of the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Rural China," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    2. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
    3. Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
    4. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Private and government consumption with liquidity constraints," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 255-266, April.
    5. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2023. "On bootstrapping tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1844-1864, November.
    6. Hirukawa, Masayuki, 2023. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation in Time Series: A Review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 36-61.
    7. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
    9. repec:pri:wwseco:dp232 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    11. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    12. James M. Nason, 1991. "The permanent income hypothesis when the bliss point is stochastic," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 46, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. L. Pozzi & F. Heylen & M. Dossche, 2002. "Government debt and the excess sensitivity of private consumption to current income: an empirical analysis for OECD countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 02/155, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    14. Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2011. "The Cross-Euler Equation Approach to testing for the Liquidity Constraint: Evidence from Macro and Micro Data," TERG Discussion Papers 273, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    15. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption: Saving decisions: Evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    16. Li, Jia & Patton, Andrew J., 2018. "Asymptotic inference about predictive accuracy using high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 223-240.
    17. Sarthak Behera & Hyeongwoo Kim & Soohyon Kim, 2025. "Asymmetric Roles of Macroeconomic Variables in the Real Exchange Rate: Insights from U.S.-Korea Data," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2025-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    18. Hahm, Joon-Ho, 1998. "Consumption adjustment to real interest rates: Intertemporal substitution revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 293-320, February.
    19. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez & N. Johana Marín & Carlos E. Posada, 2024. "Consumption of households in Colombia: What do the retail trade indices tell us?," Borradores de Economia 1275, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption: Saving decisions: Testing the finite horizon model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    21. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:41:y:2016:i:3:p:21-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sung Y. Park (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eccaukr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.