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Machine Learning Panel Data Regressions with Heavy-tailed Dependent Data: Theory and Application

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Listed:
  • Andrii Babii
  • Ryan T. Ball
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Jonas Striaukas

Abstract

The paper introduces structured machine learning regressions for heavy-tailed dependent panel data potentially sampled at different frequencies. We focus on the sparse-group LASSO regularization. This type of regularization can take advantage of the mixed frequency time series panel data structures and improve the quality of the estimates. We obtain oracle inequalities for the pooled and fixed effects sparse-group LASSO panel data estimators recognizing that financial and economic data can have fat tails. To that end, we leverage on a new Fuk-Nagaev concentration inequality for panel data consisting of heavy-tailed $\tau$-mixing processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrii Babii & Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2020. "Machine Learning Panel Data Regressions with Heavy-tailed Dependent Data: Theory and Application," Papers 2008.03600, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.03600
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liangjun Su & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2016. "Identifying Latent Structures in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2215-2264, November.
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    18. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2019. "High-Dimensional Granger Causality Tests with an Application to VIX and News," Papers 1912.06307, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo P. Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2023. "Machine learning advances for time series forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 76-111, February.
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    3. Hafner, Christian & Wang, Linqi, 2020. "Dynamic portfolio selection with sector-specific regularization," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2020032, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    4. Hans Genberg & Özer Karagedikli, 2021. "Machine Learning and Central Banks: Ready for Prime Time?," Working Papers wp43, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.

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