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Testing for leverage effects in the returns of US equities

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Chorro

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Dominique Guegan

    (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy])

  • Florian Ielpo

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hanjarivo Lalaharison

    (Faculté des Sciences - Université d'Antananarivo - Université d'Antananarivo)

Abstract

This article questions the empirical usefulness of leverage effects to forecast the dynamics of equity returns. In sample, we consistently find a significant but limited contribution of leverage effects over the past 25 years of S&P 500 returns. From an out-of-sample forecasting perspective and using a variety of different models, we find no statistical or economical value in using leverage effects, provided that an asymmetric and fat-tailed conditional distribution is used. This conclusion holds both at the index level and for 70% of the individual stocks constituents of the equity index.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Chorro & Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo & Hanjarivo Lalaharison, 2018. "Testing for leverage effects in the returns of US equities," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01917590, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01917590
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2018.07.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Jin, Jiayu & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2022. "Does the SDR stabilize investing in commodities?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 160-172.
    3. Ekow A. Aikins & Alexander Kurov, 2025. "Which Way Does the Wind Blow Between SPX Futures and VIX Futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(2), pages 79-90, February.
    4. Dangxing Chen, 2019. "Does the leverage effect affect the return distribution?," Papers 1909.08662, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    5. Birnstengel, Carolin & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2025. "An asymmetric volatility analysis of the negative oil price during the first COVID-19 wave," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Pan, Qunxing & Mei, Xiaowen & Gao, Tianqing, 2022. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese and US stock markets affected by the recent trade friction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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