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An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Closed Economy

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  • Francis Vitek

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates an unobserved components model for purposes of monetary policy analysis in a closed economy. Cyclical components are modeled as a multivariate linear rational expectations model of the monetary transmission mechanism, while trend components are modeled as unobserved components while ensuring the existence of a well defined balanced growth path. Full information maximum likelihood estimation of this unobserved components model, conditional on prior information concerning the values of trend components, provides a quantitative description of the monetary transmission mechanism in a closed economy, yields a mutually consistent set of indicators of inflationary pressure together with confidence intervals, and facilitates the generation of relatively accurate forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis Vitek, 2005. "An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Closed Economy," Macroeconomics 0512018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0512018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Alasdair Scott & Jana Eklund, 2008. "Breaks in DSGE models," 2008 Meeting Papers 657, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 800, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy analysis; Unobserved components model; Indicators of inflationary pressure; Monetary transmission mechanism; Forecast performance evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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