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Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models

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  • Brownlees, Christian T.
  • Gallo, Giampiero M.

Abstract

Within models for nonnegative time series, it is common to encounter deterministic components (trends, seasonalities) which can be specified in a flexible form. This work proposes the use of shrinkage type estimation for the parameters of such components. The amount of smoothing to be imposed on the estimates can be chosen using different methodologies: Cross-Validation for dependent data or the recently proposed Focused Information Criterion. We illustrate such a methodology using a semiparametric autoregressive conditional duration model that decomposes the conditional expectations of durations into their dynamic (parametric) and diurnal (flexible) components. We use a shrinkage estimator that jointly estimates the parameters of the two components and controls the smoothness of the estimated flexible component. The results show that, from the forecasting perspective, an appropriate shrinkage strategy can significantly improve on the baseline maximum likelihood estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Brownlees, Christian T. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2011. "Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 365-378.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:2:p:365-378 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jiwon & Mahmassani, Hani S., 2015. "Compound Gamma representation for modeling travel time variability in a traffic network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 40-63.
    2. Xinyu Zhang & Alan T. K. Wan & Sherry Z. Zhou, 2011. "Focused Information Criteria, Model Selection, and Model Averaging in a Tobit Model With a Nonzero Threshold," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 132-142.
    3. Yuanhua Feng & Sarah Forstinger & Christian Peitz, 2013. "On the iterative plug-in algorithm for estimating diurnal patterns of financial trade durations," Working Papers CIE 66, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    4. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2017. "Combining Sharp and Smooth Transitions in Volatility Dynamics: a Fuzzy Regime Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2017_05, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

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    Keywords

    Shrinkage estimation; Forecasting; ACD; MEM; CV; FIC;

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